WNBA · resolved market
Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18e95ba3b63f2b1caa318d30deeb703a1e96ea60fd1a0f40905cd344f018e7b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 49c | 22,597$11,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,107.45 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 14,893$7,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,309.1 | 1,040 | 47.7%496 W · 544 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 50c | 12,103$6,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,008.43 | 318 | 55.7%177 W · 141 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 52c | 11,538$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.98 | 146 | 53.4%78 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 10,454$5,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,226.76 | 486 | 46.9%228 W · 258 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…a1e1backed Under | 48c | 10,104$4,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,254.03 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…8380backed Under | 49c | 9,000$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,590 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…9e12backed Over | 52c | 5,769$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 49c | 4,453$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.69 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 48c | 4,257$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.49 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…ca29backed Under | 49c | 2,986$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.86 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 2,504$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.48 | 420 | 51.2%215 W · 205 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 1,565$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.99 | 809 | 48.6%393 W · 416 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Under | 48c | 1,556$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.99 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 50c | 1,500$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.75 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 156 | 42.3%66 W · 90 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 1,446$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.12 | 679 | 51.1%347 W · 332 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,350$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 885 | 48.2%427 W · 458 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 1,095$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.5 | 923 | 49.2%454 W · 469 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 1,005$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.24 | 1,820 | 51.7%941 W · 879 L | +54.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 50c | 826.1$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.05 | 317 | 47.3%150 W · 167 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09e…9368backed Under | 50c | 708$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…eb8ebacked Over | 51c | 666.67$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 63c | 480.64$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.51 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 57c | 445$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.45 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +16.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Under | 59c | 408.37$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.55 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 50c | 408.16$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 37c | 352.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.47 | 407 | 50.1%204 W · 203 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 58c | 328.15$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.28 | 322 | 50%161 W · 161 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under | 49c | 315.32$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.78 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 59c | 276$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 331 | 49.2%163 W · 168 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 63c | 259.58$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 342 | 49.7%170 W · 172 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 115 | 27.8%32 W · 83 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 51c | 173.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Under | 50c | 171.94$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed Under | 49c | 163.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.23 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +5.2wins | +0.32per pick | 49cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Over | 9c | 154.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Under | 51c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Under | 50c | 138.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 78c | 108.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 54c | 92.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 364 | 40.4%147 W · 217 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed Under | 50c | 78.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 38c | 56.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 622 | 42%261 W · 361 L | -33.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 50c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under | 50c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e4…d492backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…3444backed Under | 49c | 30.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 47c | 21.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…5826backed Over | 53c | 21.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 50c | 20.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +8.2wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5this page
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)Washington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.