WNBA · resolved market
Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5fb95cee50f88506753f6a4ccfa0816c2ca3696687ce03a52550b745d231e64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 46c | 30,532$14,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,004.97 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 17,971$9,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,342.81 | 1,820 | 51.7%941 W · 879 L | +54.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 4,875$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,229.76 | 318 | 55.7%177 W · 141 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Over | 47c | 3,297$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 2,947$1,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.48 | 923 | 49.2%454 W · 469 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…cff4backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Under | 53c | 1,585$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.13 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.99 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 67c | 1,028$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.05 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 778.13$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.94 | 408 | 50%204 W · 204 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 27c | 769.53$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 418 | 41.1%172 W · 246 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 54c | 661.98$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.58 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 47c | 499.94$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.79 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 55c | 361.81$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 47c | 330$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 56c | 280.97$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.68 | 400 | 45.5%182 W · 218 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 44c | 231.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 55c | 199.71$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Under | 55c | 190.18$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 188.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 954 | 48.1%459 W · 495 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…b44abacked Under | 55c | 182.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 54c | 180.13$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 137.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 486 | 46.9%228 W · 258 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 129.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 283 | 50.5%143 W · 140 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Under | 53c | 124.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 124.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 317 | 47.3%150 W · 167 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Under | 55c | 103$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 43c | 80.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 622 | 42%261 W · 361 L | -33.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 45c | 61.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 45c | 58.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 276 | 46%127 W · 149 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 47c | 53.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 351 | 47.9%168 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 53c | 52.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 638 | 46.7%298 W · 340 L | -21.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 47c | 48.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 335 | 49%164 W · 171 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 55c | 45.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc5…5c2dbacked Under | 56c | 44.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 725 | 45.2%328 W · 397 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f6…d13ebacked Over | 47c | 43.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…3aecbacked Under | 55c | 30.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 54c | 27.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed Under | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5this page
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)Washington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.