Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6dce66fdc26733797f10e4e63423af7b485a02a921277b0830eef1f98bd98be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 1,213$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.87 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 39c | 1,018$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.17 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 44c | 685.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 650.57$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.69 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 508.97$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 412$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 30c | 334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 35c | 319$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Yes | 3c | 313.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 303.55$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 39c | 300.48$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.89 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 5c | 295.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 28c | 282.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 266.33$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 260.73$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 247.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 231.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked No | 64c | 230$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.9 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 39c | 202.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 201.95$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 32c | 184.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 182.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 169.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 164.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 158.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 31c | 152.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 53c | 151.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 39c | 138.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 134$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 127.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 36c | 123$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 52c | 121$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 119.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 117$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 29c | 117$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 109.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 39c | 106.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 60c | 106.67$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 105.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 103$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 102.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…a608backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 42c | 97.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 42c | 96.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 89.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 27c | 89.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 87.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 56c | 86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 57c | 85.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 84.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 84.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 81.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 80.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked No | 63c | 79.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 78.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 45c | 77.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 55c | 71.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 63.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 63.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 62.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 56c | 58.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 51.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 73c | 49.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 36c | 47.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 46.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 31c | 46.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Yes | 41c | 46.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 45.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 31c | 44.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 43.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 43.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 42.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 30c | 41.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 32c | 40.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 31c | 40.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 79c | 38.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 38c | 37.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 62c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 55c | 33.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed Yes | 66c | 33.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 32.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.