Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb02126d42e2721e697249b16803fc8b4af9b5839efea34fed28d63590eb7f5bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 40c | 1,014$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.15 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 44c | 822.46$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.48 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed No | 79c | 647.77$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.87 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 641.33$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 626.73$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 625.08$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.76 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 33c | 599.98$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.81 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 63c | 490.72$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.95 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 51c | 462.65$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.25 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 23c | 455.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 58c | 421.93$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.42 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 419.71$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 47c | 405.43$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.59 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 50c | 386.49$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.49 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 53c | 379.66$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.67 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 342.34$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.87 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 59c | 334$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.94 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 314.11$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 45c | 313.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.31 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 313.3$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 293$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 36c | 292.36$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.04 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…78d5backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 38c | 235.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.21 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 229.89$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 72c | 219.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 214$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 45c | 208.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 207$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 74c | 205.84$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.95 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 200.79$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 185.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 184.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 55c | 182.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 171.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 169.3$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 164.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 162.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 62c | 161.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 161.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 161.44$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 20c | 148.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 147.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…3082backed Yes | 41c | 146.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 143.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 140.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 48c | 125.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 59c | 125.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 41c | 120.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 117$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 43c | 114.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 29c | 111.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 52c | 110.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 48c | 109.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 109.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 103$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 65c | 100.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 44c | 99.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.49 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 45c | 98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 63c | 97.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 22c | 92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 33c | 85.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 83.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 82.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 62c | 80.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 35c | 80.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 41c | 78.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 44c | 76.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…23debacked No | 69c | 72.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 71.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 69.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 36c | 67.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 53c | 64.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 47c | 63.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 63.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 62.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 24c | 62.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 60c | 60.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 59.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 74c | 58.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 63c | 57.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 66c | 56.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 57c | 50.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 58c | 45.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 45.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 46c | 45.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b0…0a60backed Yes | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eba…7ff0backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.