Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf71e88f9008d0b40573c951f6fdebfb5502a47c443ad80a31a5542e195870c21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 75c | 3,925$2,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.99 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…92f9backed Under | 19c | 3,857$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 2,252$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 1,281$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.32 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 19c | 830.6$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 19c | 819.26$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.96 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 8c | 687.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35b…6eb2backed Over | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 18c | 483.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.86 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…e3c2backed Under | 5c | 301.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…3e5cbacked Under | 32c | 271.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 19c | 266.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 19c | 250.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 21c | 218.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 22c | 202.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…dbcfbacked Over | 80c | 151.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 23c | 127$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…04a7backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Over | 78c | 126.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 19c | 123.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…84d1backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 80c | 94.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 76c | 88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 17c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Under | 20c | 66.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 20c | 51.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8720…ea73backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf96…8843backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…571cbacked Over | 80c | 28.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 79c | 27.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…7a6bbacked Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Over | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.