Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44caae8b80757ca3954a5a54272eeebd906a4146a0ccb7647321bb4476ec767d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 2,984$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.3 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 36c | 2,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,714$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.51 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,451$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 10c | 1,162$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked No | 39c | 999.87$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c20…42a1backed No | 37c | 815$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 44c | 500$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Yes | 64c | 388.57$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 61c | 313$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.07 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 61c | 291$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 35c | 263$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfc…07b0backed Yes | 65c | 182.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 35c | 181.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 35c | 175.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Yes | 64c | 171.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…07c2backed No | 10c | 160.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Yes | 63c | 156.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked No | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 64c | 144$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked No | 35c | 142.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 35c | 137.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 36c | 119$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 39c | 109.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…c53fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed No | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…7231backed Yes | 65c | 75.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 61c | 60.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…4f34backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 36c | 50.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…a77fbacked Yes | 63c | 49.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Yes | 61c | 48.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 28c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 64c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b2…7d9cbacked No | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…76a1backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 64c | 37.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed No | 38c | 36.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…5fb4backed No | 35c | 31.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 61c | 29.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 60c | 27.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…2372backed Yes | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Yes | 59c | 20.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…b432backed Yes | 61c | 20.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 61c | 19.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 73c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…9200backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca9…d450backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.