TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,193
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,104

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,193 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc181…6e97backed Under51c19,522$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd9…1ef0backed Over62c15,414$9,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,805.642055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Under38c10,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,799.993554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Over59c5,903$3,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,426.236761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under41c4,263$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.8338748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under38c4,110$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.292,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Under39c3,929$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.23429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Over66c3,801$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Over62c3,500$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3306744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4520…e501backed Under33c3,474$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Over53c3,419$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.496762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Over13c3,204$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,787.512437.5%9 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.27per pick10cpaid+187.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Over61c2,459$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.028448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Over62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7602948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a0…92f9backed Under7c1,968$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under40c1,789$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.428547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2fd6…d7babacked Over50c1,600$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Over62c1,300$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4946647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over59c1,090$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.1333737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under31c1,090$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.743,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40016850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Over62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3806549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under37c959.32$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.1569851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf009…43d0backed Over65c923.63$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.631266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+56%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x11ea…9e46backed Under39c768.73$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over55c757$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.655345.3%24 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over62c653.42$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.35745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over63c621.04$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.4228755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78bf…6df9backed Under39c620.49$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over58c599.1$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.3348141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over54c573$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5822245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Under36c552.36$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.037532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over58c551.64$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.3433938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dc8…6655backed Under40c509.72$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under35c507.1$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9727138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1854240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1659150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Over62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1907050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under33c480.93$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9364043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under38c480$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.420545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Under43c461.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under41c457$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3738646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over60c431.38$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.129855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over64c403.01$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.084032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x016c…df21backed Over52c400$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1922941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Over62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1525451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Over65c398.97$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.142445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4c…39c0backed Over9c394.18$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.71612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under50c344$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1722729.6%8 W · 19 L-7.1wins-0.26per pick56cpaid-49.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed Over62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.581163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under37c321.75$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.053557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over63c305.69$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.1749143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Over62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1145650%28 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under43c297.78$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0433340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under39c264.35$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.751,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under39c257.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5116846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under37c245.32$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5333047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over61c243.59$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab4d…3f0bbacked Over64c234.38$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.381080%8 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+41.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d63…aa21backed Under39c215.38$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under39c215$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8522047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Under20c201.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Over62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7617055.3%94 W · 76 L-0.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Over52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under42c179.01$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2955058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Under30c172$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.962020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a6b…68a0backed Over64c171.88$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5721…6746backed Over62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3696…69cebacked Over62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575771.9%41 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b87…a487backed Under7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Under41c146.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601844.4%8 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8948…7e5ebacked Under37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2e…6da4backed Over62c130$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under37c126$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.629838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd33a…1fe2backed Under37c108.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x055a…12ddbacked Over48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.17875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+122.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93ff…84d1backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Under28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2817456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc13f…c93bbacked Under18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+46.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Over80c99.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.026355.6%35 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under41c96.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6162452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6bf…9ac0backed Over54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.591573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+39.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under38c80.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9712056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under41c79.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4515048%72 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x488e…ea2ebacked Over66c79.07$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3e…11c0backed Under39c64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.961353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c73…3a99backed Over60c63.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked Under38c62.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.885846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Over59c61.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.396752.2%35 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under41c60.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6917852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Under40c54.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.056743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Under38c52.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Under40c52.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.025251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Over60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+57.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1922854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1915454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over66c49.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.714755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over79c48.69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.448658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.