TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1. FC Heidenheim 1846of FC Bayern München, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,986
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,986 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x62fb…4d60backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184656c3,949$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.581127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-52.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked FC Bayern München40c3,641$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4503636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184660c3,033$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.043836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed FC Bayern München45c2,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1255870.7%41 W · 17 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed FC Bayern München40c1,938$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7751241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184660c1,750$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7009459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184660c1,495$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.1227138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed FC Bayern München12c1,200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1445024%12 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed FC Bayern München22c1,063$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.9233938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked FC Bayern München43c1,012$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.449150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x062c…48e7backed FC Bayern München5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked FC Bayern München19c932.41$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.957532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FC Bayern München4c790.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.685345.3%24 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184660c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24029855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184672c581.76$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.463,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184663c477.36$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.361369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbaa…c8ffbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184667c448.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed FC Bayern München10c350.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8553140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184662c346.49$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.231770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67c3…d11dbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184662c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+176%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed FC Bayern München38c303.22$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.263158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f6…4892backed FC Bayern München40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006645.5%30 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9403…7361backed FC Bayern München40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004452.3%23 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d6a…8bbcbacked FC Bayern München40c248.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.52231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa96f…0cd0backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184661c245.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.92352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee4…8c98backed FC Bayern München43c224.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.581136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c1…185cbacked FC Bayern München14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184660c211.83$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.738950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18c…0350backed FC Bayern München40c203.75$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.51442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184659c202.52$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.035151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd88d…f708backed FC Bayern München39c192.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked FC Bayern München39c189.51$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9138646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54d5…77d4backed FC Bayern München40c176$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.42254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbbc…3122backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184662c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick63cpaid-58.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184664c152.7$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.978851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked FC Bayern München12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1811943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked FC Bayern München40c126.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ecf…9148backed FC Bayern München41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-72.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184663c113.02$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.025952.5%31 W · 28 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick65cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a61…bbb2backed FC Bayern München37c108.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid+38.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184660c101.52$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.611,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184669c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed FC Bayern München15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-62.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed FC Bayern München20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2314642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked FC Bayern München39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3914726.5%39 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick27cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked FC Bayern München29c86.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0514755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Bayern München19c82.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8664043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed FC Bayern München25c80.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8428822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb61…25e3backed FC Bayern München40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184660c73.88$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3326445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184661c68.61$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.766844.1%30 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed FC Bayern München16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106439.1%25 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x205a…682abacked FC Bayern München39c60.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked FC Bayern München27c56.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.954112.2%5 W · 36 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-58.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184661c50.82$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.822152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed3d…f1eabacked FC Bayern München40c50.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.211258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+37.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2413…2442backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184666c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d17…55f1backed FC Bayern München40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed FC Bayern München38c49.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.994057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed FC Bayern München39c48.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9622047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184660c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184658c42.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1833340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x649d…8548backed FC Bayern München40c41.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0045…9007backed FC Bayern München40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31c8…9487backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184677c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.361266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed FC Bayern München46c38.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.984240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97a1…d1eebacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184666c37.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cfd…3d84backed FC Bayern München40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-41.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184639c37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.573259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Bayern München61c36.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0449647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5012…4d3ebacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184660c33.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.451566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x562f…e46fbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184660c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184662c30.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.646743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…edb9backed FC Bayern München40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102020%4 W · 16 L-7.6wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-69.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x6628…b24abacked FC Bayern München40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8af…9426backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184660c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184654c23.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.837265.3%47 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17b6…af55backed 1. FC Heidenheim 184664c20.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.28862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3aa7…303dbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 184671c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.34070%28 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.