Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf89204297dc8ff24a6b96578e484030445de64221a97346630a28307c0910b10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 59c | 5,991$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.09 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 40c | 5,008$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,014.73 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Yes | 77c | 3,515$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 58c | 2,613$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.47 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…8b58backed Yes | 9c | 2,469$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,015.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed No | 60c | 1,757$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.49 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 58c | 1,725$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.59 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 78c | 1,438$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.6 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 35c | 1,273$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.25 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 26c | 1,241$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.15 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 59c | 1,228$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.66 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 42c | 1,159$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.74 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 39c | 1,041$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.83 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 40c | 1,024$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.42 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 22c | 827.76$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.6 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 9c | 799.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 26c | 755$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.05 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Yes | 38c | 622.79$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.56 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 76c | 496.25$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 52c | 445.43$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.2 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 5c | 435$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 57c | 406.63$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.74 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 22c | 395.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0c…1249backed Yes | 9c | 350$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +158%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 349.82$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.86 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 29c | 344$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 9c | 308.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.65 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.6 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 58c | 257.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.71 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 28c | 247$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.1 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 70c | 242.4$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 79 | 74.7%59 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 8c | 240.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 34c | 218.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 70c | 215.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 54c | 215.06$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.96 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 212.86$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Yes | 61c | 194.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…5fc3backed Yes | 11c | 193.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +820.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 42c | 165.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Yes | 64c | 154.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 10c | 148$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 39c | 145.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 133.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 21c | 115.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 78c | 100.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 79c | 97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c7…c6bdbacked No | 45c | 90.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…ab76backed No | 22c | 87.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed No | 56c | 83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 79c | 76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…5c9fbacked Yes | 64c | 72.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed No | 44c | 67.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 70c | 65.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…7720backed Yes | 19c | 58.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 26c | 55.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked Yes | 63c | 47.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 44c | 42.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…0559backed Yes | 59c | 40.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…06d9backed Yes | 62c | 39.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54e…1297backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 42c | 28.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99f…0d86backed Yes | 59c | 20.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…c61ebacked No | 66c | 20.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…f89bbacked No | 78c | 19.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Yes | 58c | 18.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?No won
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.