Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa276ae2e4a68cb81e6919d662c5cde9adb80d76764c6fd1a92555b6061d67024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 42c | 7,295$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,240.49 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 53c | 2,326$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.9 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 53c | 1,450$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.62 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 67c | 1,082$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.02 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,012$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.05 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 55c | 931.75$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.35 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 35c | 859.48$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Yes | 10c | 820$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 63c | 745.07$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.47 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 44c | 734.87$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.22 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 29c | 634.22$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.48 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 59c | 627.62$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.94 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 54c | 623.85$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.63 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Yes | 71c | 500$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…5292backed Yes | 43c | 460.47$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 63c | 412.83$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.22 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 407.61$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 35c | 369.2$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 74c | 355.7$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.55 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 65c | 311.25$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 49c | 301.46$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 19c | 299.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 294.02$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.66 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 7c | 290.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…5cf1backed Yes | 34c | 273.53$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 33c | 267$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 46c | 214$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 56c | 179.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed No | 62c | 177.82$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 45c | 157.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.78 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 21c | 148.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 44c | 131.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked No | 66c | 128.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 33c | 126.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e05…ae77backed Yes | 45c | 122.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 59c | 99.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 40c | 97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Yes | 37c | 94.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 50c | 87.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xafad…ab6dbacked Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 53c | 83.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 39c | 74.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7454…57f2backed Yes | 38c | 72.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Yes | 45c | 67.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 21c | 61.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked No | 64c | 59.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 21c | 55.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…6eaabacked No | 31c | 55.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 54.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 25c | 52.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 52c | 51.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928d…c482backed Yes | 65c | 45.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…bdb5backed No | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 36.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 49c | 35.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb633…871abacked Yes | 45c | 33.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…63f3backed No | 45c | 33.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked No | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Yes | 39c | 31.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +9.3wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…a4fcbacked No | 42c | 26.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e6…952dbacked Yes | 56c | 20.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -37%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf54e…1297backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab35…118dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 78c | 16.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…85afbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-02?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.