NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-21.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf98e84e4844ea4dbe5e59f2207d4897fcb3cf9c244b5946cd63685ee62dac4b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 57c | 582.42$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz | 42c | 499.23$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.52 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Jazz | 45c | 367.64$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.36 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Jazz | 40c | 275.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder | 55c | 274.29$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked Jazz | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 433 | 52.2%226 W · 207 L | +19.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Thunder | 60c | 172.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Thunder | 57c | 110.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2c03backed Thunder | 59c | 102.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Thunder | 60c | 73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 65c | 70.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Jazz | 40c | 63.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Jazz | 26c | 58.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder | 74c | 57.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Thunder | 55c | 51.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Thunder | 60c | 49.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Thunder | 58c | 40.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Jazz | 45c | 35.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Jazz | 39c | 34.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked Jazz | 42c | 33.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Jazz | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Jazz | 41c | 31.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Thunder | 60c | 29.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Thunder | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Thunder | 57c | 25.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…c307backed Thunder | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Thunder | 60c | 18.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Thunder | 67c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-21.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Cody Williams: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. ThunderThunder won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 242.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 244.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 245.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 247.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 249.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 252.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 254.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 255.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 256.5Over won
- Kyle Filipowski: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-20.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-22.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-23.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-24.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-31.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-32.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-33.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-34.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-41.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.