TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$244,380
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$243,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,380 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over54c160,946$86,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,278.9387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Under46c80,000$36,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,80026253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under46c48,679$22,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,392.341,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over52c10,702$5,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,137.3966248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Under47c10,665$4,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,959.7832846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed Under46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.9912945.7%59 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Over52c9,088$4,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,405.698429.8%25 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under47c7,885$3,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,718.433,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed Under46c7,866$3,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,618.488839.8%35 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under48c5,656$2,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,701.141,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Under48c3,508$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.7630446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under49c2,995$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.542,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over58c2,960$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.822,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4fd…b5afbacked Under48c2,559$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.441154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Under49c1,929$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.2931046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb579…d7d0backed Under49c1,868$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.581435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked Under46c1,291$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.0314640.4%59 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under47c1,247$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.641,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Under49c1,123$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.2656043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under11c1,076$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.1852230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over51c1,009$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.6218345.4%83 W · 100 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over56c955.17$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.878,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Over53c928.06$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.8534953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43bf…425abacked Over54c905.78$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.681656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Under48c893.23$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.7531643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e70…f06fbacked Under48c807.33$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.526746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under47c805.85$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.213,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under46c800$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3681,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under49c799.91$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.961,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Over51c686.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.6331354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over53c667.63$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.786,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Over53c666.65$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.3312257.4%70 W · 52 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over55c545.72$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.261,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over54c540.22$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.595452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under49c533.45$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3921350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Under5c526.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7610239.2%40 W · 62 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over77c523.22$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.252,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Under19c512.85$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1116147.2%76 W · 85 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under46c455.34$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.532,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Under13c341.46$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4618835.1%66 W · 122 L+24.5wins+0.13per pick22cpaid+116.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Over52c301.01$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.5544345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under47c274.97$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2440146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Over54c252.82$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.31,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over76c245.71$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6760049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under47c225$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.751,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed Over50c214.67$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2911946.2%55 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c207.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.829,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under49c203.39$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5693543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Over50c202$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10147436.7%174 W · 300 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6768645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Under48c199.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9166046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Under47c198.75$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9318055%99 W · 81 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over55c194.6$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5732450.3%163 W · 161 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed Over51c194.12$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.129749.5%48 W · 49 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8372…b075backed Over51c190.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.251650%8 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe226…95a5backed Over54c180.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.839853.1%52 W · 46 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f76…9798backed Over54c179.93$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6913554.8%74 W · 61 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Under48c176.35$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9329344.4%130 W · 163 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf498…3d66backed Under47c172.6$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3411855.1%65 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under48c171.73$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4355347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…03b7backed Over52c150.89$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4310457.7%60 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x596b…e891backed Over77c140$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-51.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under39c138.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.013,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1812…0db6backed Under44c131.02$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.089634.4%33 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x549d…35b9backed Over52c130.74$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7511354.9%62 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf10…691bbacked Under46c125.43$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0713751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Over54c122.34$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8616053.8%86 W · 74 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c117.09$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.865,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over54c114.02$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.451,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a53…074abacked Over53c112.51$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.885448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x088d…3516backed Under48c111.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.283237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8d6…4af7backed Over68c106$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.745269.2%36 W · 16 L+11.8wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+53.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0a83…9c87backed Over55c101.16$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.66650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Under46c100.97$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4447738.2%182 W · 295 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2110…306fbacked Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507844.9%35 W · 43 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Under49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4963353.1%336 W · 297 L-2.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506950.7%35 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee62…bc6abacked Under45c99.74$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8826745.3%121 W · 146 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Over53c97.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6740053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over51c95.16$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.631,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf5…815bbacked Under47c93.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5615453.2%82 W · 72 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over52c93.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8253453.4%285 W · 249 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7663…c9aabacked Over53c91.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.092277.3%17 W · 5 L+6.7wins+0.31per pick47cpaid+64%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Over54c90.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.426950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeef…5667backed Under47c87.11$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6615253.3%81 W · 71 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed Under20c81.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.082240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b46…944cbacked Under47c75.81$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6317155.6%95 W · 76 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a7…22a7backed Under47c75.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.624146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed Under48c74.27$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6521753%115 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a8…0725backed Under47c72.1$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.891225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over52c68.89$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.291,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under48c68.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9560945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked Over54c67.57$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2813052.3%68 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Over49c63.22$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9338947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Under34c62.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3426839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Over65c61.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.351,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Over51c60.67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.739150.5%46 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over50c59.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.971,66150.3%836 W · 825 L-14.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983c…dd56backed Over50c59.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5511551.3%59 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f2…fdb4backed Over51c57.09$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9811558.3%67 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.