NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-20.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85f732ae14ee1c2b35895ec7adca5c8ea9e9878132cfaf27b3fb1e3a0495d555
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Thunder | 70c | 1,999$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.67 | 147 | 66%97 W · 50 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz | 40c | 1,931$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.75 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 59c | 1,245$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Thunder | 66c | 1,043$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.27 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 26c | 904.8$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.79 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Jazz | 30c | 798.33$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.5 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Jazz | 39c | 628.86$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.31 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Jazz | 15c | 618.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Jazz | 36c | 555.54$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.3 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Jazz | 35c | 448.52$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.38 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Jazz | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Jazz | 42c | 224.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Thunder | 65c | 171.23$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…a638backed Thunder | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Thunder | 67c | 147.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz | 39c | 112.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Thunder | 58c | 107.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…22e0backed Thunder | 62c | 106.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Thunder | 64c | 104.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Jazz | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder | 57c | 97.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Jazz | 44c | 97.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Thunder | 61c | 79.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Thunder | 61c | 79.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Thunder | 61c | 79.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Thunder | 61c | 79.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Thunder | 61c | 79.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Thunder | 61c | 79.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Thunder | 61c | 79.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 423 | 52.5%222 W · 201 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Thunder | 61c | 79.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Thunder | 64c | 77.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jazz | 41c | 67.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Jazz | 34c | 66.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Thunder | 64c | 65.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Jazz | 35c | 63.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be5…9d53backed Thunder | 58c | 60.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Jazz | 35c | 56.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Jazz | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Jazz | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…2080backed Thunder | 61c | 49.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 248 | 50%124 W · 124 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked Thunder | 59c | 48.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Thunder | 63c | 44.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Thunder | 62c | 44.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Thunder | 61c | 41.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Thunder | 61c | 41.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 146 | 40.4%59 W · 87 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Thunder | 63c | 40.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…1414backed Jazz | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Thunder | 61c | 37.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Thunder | 61c | 37.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Thunder | 61c | 37.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Thunder | 61c | 37.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Thunder | 61c | 37.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Jazz | 35c | 32.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Thunder | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…803abacked Thunder | 62c | 31.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Thunder | 63c | 29.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Thunder | 59c | 27.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Thunder | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 202 | 40.1%81 W · 121 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…3c85backed Thunder | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Thunder | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…66d4backed Thunder | 60c | 23.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Thunder | 61c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Thunder | 69c | 21.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Thunder | 71c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Thunder | 75c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Thunder | 61c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Thunder | 58c | 18.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Thunder | 61c | 17.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-20.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Cody Williams: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. ThunderThunder won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 242.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 244.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 245.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 247.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 249.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 252.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 254.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 255.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 256.5Over won
- Kyle Filipowski: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-21.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-22.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-23.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-24.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-31.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-32.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-33.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-34.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-41.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.