NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-23.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ba92218e22d6a8954225c90787b6a73e7ca15855ff1cf4cb746b57d3df8124a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Jazz | 47c | 40,000$18,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,599.99 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder | 53c | 10,399$5,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,871.02 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Thunder | 54c | 9,083$4,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,178.11 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…098abacked Thunder | 54c | 8,644$4,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,976.03 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 53c | 5,497$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,583.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Thunder | 55c | 4,745$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.33 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Thunder | 56c | 4,243$2,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.31 | 191 | 52.4%100 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Jazz | 45c | 3,288$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.51 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Jazz | 39c | 2,080$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.86 | 205 | 37.1%76 W · 129 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfa…9743backed Jazz | 44c | 1,837$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.28 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Jazz | 47c | 969.38$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.57 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Thunder | 53c | 916.79$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.89 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Thunder | 55c | 834.35$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.46 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Thunder | 52c | 788.98$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.71 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 69c | 611.76$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Thunder | 53c | 550.04$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.52 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 47c | 449.91$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…4857backed Jazz | 48c | 379.45$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder | 54c | 264.49$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.67 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Jazz | 48c | 250.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.85 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Jazz | 48c | 241.05$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.27 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Thunder | 52c | 235.66$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Jazz | 6c | 201.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…dee1backed Jazz | 48c | 193.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Thunder | 53c | 183.36$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Thunder | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 481 | 52%250 W · 231 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Thunder | 53c | 111.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Thunder | 54c | 99.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…b075backed Thunder | 54c | 90.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed Thunder | 55c | 89.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…425abacked Thunder | 55c | 89.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Thunder | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d6…4af7backed Thunder | 59c | 80.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +11.8wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…c02abacked Thunder | 20c | 69.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Thunder | 53c | 61.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 238 | 40.8%97 W · 141 L | -16.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Thunder | 53c | 55.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Jazz | 48c | 51.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Thunder | 60c | 43.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Thunder | 60c | 42.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Thunder | 60c | 42.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Thunder | 60c | 42.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Thunder | 60c | 42.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Thunder | 60c | 42.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Thunder | 60c | 42.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 423 | 52.5%222 W · 201 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Thunder | 60c | 42.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Jazz | 48c | 41.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Thunder | 80c | 31.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Thunder | 67c | 26.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Thunder | 54c | 25.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Thunder | 52c | 23.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Thunder | 52c | 23.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Thunder | 52c | 23.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Thunder | 52c | 23.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Thunder | 69c | 23.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Thunder | 51c | 21.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…9337backed Thunder | 55c | 21.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Thunder | 71c | 20.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Thunder | 68c | 19.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Thunder | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Thunder | 69c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Thunder | 69c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 146 | 40.4%59 W · 87 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Thunder | 69c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Thunder | 69c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Thunder | 69c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Thunder | 69c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-23.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Cody Williams: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. ThunderThunder won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 239.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 242.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 244.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 245.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 247.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 249.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 252.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 254.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 255.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 256.5Over won
- Kyle Filipowski: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-20.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-21.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-22.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-24.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-31.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-32.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-33.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-34.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-41.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.