Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a0d3ef7ad6bacc1bfeddc5c3b067e6229b16b1c7f77fdd461b86a7365c3686
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 36c | 571.8$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 535.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.89 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 53c | 481$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.66 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 61c | 300.63$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.23 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 62c | 295.93$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 46c | 259.78$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 64c | 239.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 237.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 197.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 63c | 159.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 158$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 153.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 152.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…c235backed No | 43c | 125.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 125.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 38c | 109.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 101.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 36c | 97.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 90.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 39c | 85.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 44c | 77.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 76.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 59c | 73.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 70c | 71.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 69.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 59c | 62.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 47c | 50.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 46c | 47.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 55c | 42.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 55c | 42.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 39.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 37c | 39.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…076ebacked Yes | 72c | 38.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 37c | 37.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 37c | 37.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 54c | 34.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 43c | 33.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 52c | 32.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 37c | 29.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 49c | 28.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 27.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 67c | 27.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…8927backed Yes | 55c | 27.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 44c | 26.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 48c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 64c | 21.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…2aafbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 59c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.