UFC · resolved market
Will Conor McGregor fight Max Holloway next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa773dd88d0771fe5d0761766833fe902fe38a9f6ea7a2cb19449243d200227f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe946…0459backed Yes | 42c | 1,050$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6c…8fe6backed No | 42c | 788.57$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.91 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…0539backed Yes | 72c | 772.67$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 74c | 637.65$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.29 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed No | 77c | 608.81$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 271$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 40c | 234.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 30c | 196.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 13c | 175$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 39cpaid | +189%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…c07cbacked Yes | 75c | 167$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d37…dd86backed Yes | 36c | 138.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 20c | 137.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…abfebacked No | 31c | 112.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 109.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141a…95a9backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed Yes | 66c | 64.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 26c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…6e51backed No | 21c | 60.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 58.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…9bcbbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66d…9fdfbacked Yes | 78c | 38.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed Yes | 78c | 36.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 33.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d79…8685backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…b979backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…da78backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed No | 73c | 27.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 55c | 22.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…23dabacked No | 52c | 22.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4068…87d2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Conor McGregor fight Max Holloway next?this page
- Will Alexander Volkanovski fight Max Holloway next?No won
- Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Max Holloway next?No won
- Will Benoît Saint Denis fight Max Holloway next?No won
- Will Dan Hooker fight Max Holloway next?No won
- Will Justin Gaethje fight Max Holloway next?No won
- Will Mateusz Gamrot fight Max Holloway next?No won
- Will Maurício Ruffy fight Max Holloway next?No won
- Will Paddy Pimblett fight Max Holloway next?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.