Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa782bdbd34181f174f4b9a45dd040c3cd30175ae72ffd6648926e428c36cc6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 4,300$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 1c | 2,401$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 20c | 665.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.82 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 590.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 76c | 531.11$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 523.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 15c | 450.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 10c | 401.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 345.43$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 8c | 342.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 24c | 332.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 13c | 303.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 22c | 299.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 271.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 267.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 186.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 186.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 186.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 184.61$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 144.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 13c | 132$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 73c | 123.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 120.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 17c | 114$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 14c | 109.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 14c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 13c | 100.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 98.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…87b5backed Yes | 23c | 88.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 31c | 86.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 18c | 82.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 18c | 77.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 74.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 26c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 72.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 64.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abb…fd95backed Yes | 19c | 63.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 61.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 79c | 54.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 79c | 52.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 29c | 51.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 75c | 50.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…0ac4backed Yes | 27c | 48.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 44.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6a…d012backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 29c | 39.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…ec99backed No | 73c | 38.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 72c | 35.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 33.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 25.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 73c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 77c | 20.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…11f9backed No | 78c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.