CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac3d48692cc0959825ebd96d29f87173ef8edab292e7377c0348db517cf461e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,265 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Over | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,000 | 392 | 49%192 W · 200 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 50c | 37,710$18,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,854.93 | 330 | 43.3%143 W · 187 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…f558backed Over | 52c | 9,703$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,703.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 8,926$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,434.61 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 6,000$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 48c | 5,193$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,492.59 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 2,685$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.95 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 50c | 2,290$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.18 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Under | 72c | 2,070$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.96 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Over | 27c | 1,720$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.66 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Over | 29c | 1,704$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.17 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Under | 66c | 1,681$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.2 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…0da4backed Over | 47c | 1,488$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.2 | 339 | 60.8%206 W · 133 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Under | 49c | 848$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.52 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 48c | 753.61$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.55 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…48c0backed Over | 28c | 712.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.51 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 63c | 524.79$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.35 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 58c | 495.62$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 49c | 487.76$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 178 | 47.2%84 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 46c | 468.55$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.19 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 333.18$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.03 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 36c | 311.84$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.58 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…54c2backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 148 | 56.1%83 W · 65 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Over | 28c | 257.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.31 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 43c | 230.94$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.54 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 228 | 43.9%100 W · 128 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd07…8d16backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Over | 51c | 197.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e03…ecbdbacked Under | 55c | 192.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 58c | 188.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 33c | 167.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.22 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 159.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.03 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Over | 32c | 158.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 50c | 156.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Over | 56c | 153$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 251 | 43.8%110 W · 141 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 69c | 133.29$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 47c | 128.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 21c | 109.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 248 | 50.4%125 W · 123 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x560e…59b1backed Under | 74c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Over | 42c | 81.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Under | 49c | 76.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 42c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…9664backed Under | 52c | 66.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over | 33c | 66.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Under | 50c | 65.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 196 | 53.1%104 W · 92 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Under | 50c | 52.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Under | 50c | 51.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0058…44c9backed Over | 50c | 51.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…61e2backed Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…b133backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Over | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 368 | 45.9%169 W · 199 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 113 | 40.7%46 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…ec71backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Under | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…88a0backed Under | 53c | 30.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed Over | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a92…6643backed Over | 50c | 29.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Over | 41c | 29.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a34…e379backed Over | 53c | 28.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1c68backed Over | 51c | 25.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…c203backed Under | 77c | 22.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 77cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Under | 50c | 21.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…3152backed Over | 51c | 20.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…ea80backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb898…151cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked Under | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerLegacy won
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)Legacy won
- Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)Aurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.