Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfad23d448b8656644680fe1fe0a01e8b2bb5b6503e1e5830bd450e50750a4c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 367.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…2bb1backed Yes | 12c | 332.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 28c | 296.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 291.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…625cbacked No | 65c | 193.22$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 53c | 187.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 149.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 69c | 138.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 134.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 133.42$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 101.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 20c | 96.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 94.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 31c | 93.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 90.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 80.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 70c | 70.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 78c | 61.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 77c | 61.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 65c | 58.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…1870backed Yes | 32c | 56.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 29c | 56.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 55.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 54.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 31c | 52.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…68f0backed No | 78c | 47.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 46.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 72c | 44.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 40.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 35.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 68c | 34.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…dc4ebacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 29.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 63c | 27.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 70c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 71c | 21.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 67c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 18.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.