Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0080ecb6e2ba298b5b35a0a6b0fe6e2ab6d2c65c0adf43f758bf753d052b690a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 424.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 48c | 323.4$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.81 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 295.65$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 38c | 289.7$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.92 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 261.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 251.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 250.28$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 187.3$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…2bb1backed Yes | 47c | 161$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 142.44$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 133.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 127$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 110.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 108$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 105.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 103.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 38c | 103.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 103.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 70c | 95.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 94.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 94.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 94.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 79c | 92.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 87.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 86.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 42c | 83.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 83.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…2a43backed Yes | 79c | 75.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes | 38c | 75.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 72.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 70.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 70.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 62c | 70.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 37c | 69.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 41c | 68.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 32c | 62.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 57.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 54.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 41c | 49.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 60c | 46.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 45.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 48c | 41.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 41c | 40.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 59c | 40.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 33.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 33.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 33.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 32.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 53c | 29.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd40…7730backed Yes | 36c | 29.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 66c | 28.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 60c | 28.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 37c | 28.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 25.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 18.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 63c | 17.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 66c | 17.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.