Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb79e5b51451d1589dac798535562693fe6604b471ec35bc0c38bff5972068cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 43c | 1,783$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.48 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 73c | 475.89$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.09 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 475.71$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.88 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 49c | 327.9$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 254.71$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 23c | 243.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 230$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 47c | 229.82$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 51c | 219.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 214$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 21c | 197.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 194$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked No | 27c | 162.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 157$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 38c | 154.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 44c | 152.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 48c | 146$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 140$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…6864backed Yes | 46c | 132.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 116.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 17c | 113.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 105.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…fafbbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed No | 61c | 99.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 99.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 98.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 26c | 97.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 58c | 97.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 28c | 92.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 91.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 89.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7949…67c5backed Yes | 46c | 86.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 37c | 80.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…8d7ebacked Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c3…a98abacked No | 33c | 60.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…9f3bbacked No | 30c | 58.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 49c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 36c | 47.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 73c | 45.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…b34abacked No | 26c | 43.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…d6a7backed No | 26c | 43.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 26c | 43.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9289backed Yes | 48c | 42.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 51c | 41.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed No | 30c | 41.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 48c | 41.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 46c | 40.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 27c | 37.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 53c | 33.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 52c | 24.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 44c | 24.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 73c | 20.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…d9d7backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +525%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 78c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 78c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on July 1?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on July 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on July 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on July 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on July 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.