South American Leagues · resolved market
Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcb5a31b448e2c8951e8663528457bbcd8d60a6f21f4e76bc070b4257b82dc41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 3,504$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,100.08 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed Over | 32c | 2,477$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.33 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 74c | 1,598$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.36 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 20c | 1,258$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.44 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 69c | 1,017$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 68c | 918.35$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.23 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 10c | 889.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.41 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6102…1913backed Over | 44c | 567.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.08 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 26c | 458.72$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.53 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 39c | 450.48$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.53 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 27c | 396.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.65 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 366.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 361.87$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 216.9$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 8c | 167.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.71 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 26c | 142$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 16c | 120$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 31c | 115.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 22c | 108.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 16c | 106.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9900…5cc9backed Over | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Over | 22c | 92.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 25c | 91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5a…1179backed Over | 31c | 81.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 41c | 78.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 26c | 76.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 77c | 76.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Over | 34c | 76.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 23c | 75.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 21c | 70.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 31c | 69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 32c | 56.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…725dbacked Under | 78c | 52.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 44c | 39.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Under | 60c | 33.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…b1d4backed Under | 73c | 28.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 66c | 20.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 4.5this page
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: Atlético San Luis O/U 0.5Over won
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: Atlético San Luis O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: CF Cruz Azul O/U 0.5Over won
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: CF Cruz Azul O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: CF Cruz Azul O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 0.5Over won
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 1.5Over won
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5Over won
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 3.5Over won
- Atlético San Luis vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Atlético San Luis (-1.5)CF Cruz Azul won
- Spread: Atlético San Luis (-2.5)CF Cruz Azul won
- Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5)Atlético San Luis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.