MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcc2b15ae649a287a8f0c9b77b3d9835f39ca7498af60cf718edf50a6cde60d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 45c | 5,000$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 55c | 4,904$2,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,209.56 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 51c | 3,864$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.33 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 2,858$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.26 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 2,691$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 2,276$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.19 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 50c | 2,140$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.03 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 55c | 2,027$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.31 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 2,024$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 46c | 1,548$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 45c | 1,422$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.99 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 1,166$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 57c | 1,157$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.34 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…43f6backed Over | 46c | 1,065$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 54c | 981.99$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.72 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 54c | 779.9$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.03 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 695$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…0a6ebacked Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 44c | 610.27$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.52 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 44c | 604.09$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.8 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 55c | 540$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Under | 55c | 439.2$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.64 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 370.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.49 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 45c | 362.58$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.16 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 52c | 334$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.32 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 68c | 312.22$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.94 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 53c | 295.74$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 46c | 276.09$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 17c | 263.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 43c | 227.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 47c | 217.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 56c | 211.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 199.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.31 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 55c | 196.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 54c | 186$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 52c | 172.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Over | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 139.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 47c | 126$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 118$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Under | 55c | 113.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 59c | 101$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 51c | 97.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 50c | 82.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 55c | 76.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 44c | 65.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 55c | 64.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 67c | 59.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 54c | 55.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 51.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 39.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 44c | 35.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 46c | 30.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Over | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 44c | 28.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 56c | 23.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Under | 54c | 23.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…fe71backed Over | 47c | 22.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -9.0wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 48c | 20.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta BravesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.