Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd4ba7a32a541354bfe531f539fa3e335b0b2df71f0ee25c0eee0368c247685d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 12c | 3,863$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.65 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 16c | 1,398$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,108$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 59c | 972.32$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.34 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 858.06$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.04 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 31c | 805.79$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.55 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 758.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 651$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 646.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 45c | 596.83$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.91 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 42c | 568.99$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.99 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 29c | 536.85$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 456.29$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.45 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 449.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 441.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 398.36$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.45 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 21c | 372.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 334.47$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 50c | 316.93$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.93 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 303.64$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed No | 66c | 296.92$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.63 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 14c | 292.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 33c | 286.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 21c | 280.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 51c | 279.05$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.77 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 275.69$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 252.79$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 12c | 240.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242d…6119backed No | 77c | 239.01$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 23c | 221.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 14c | 219.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 41c | 217.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 32c | 207.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 37c | 196.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 33c | 186.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…33abbacked Yes | 48c | 180.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 24c | 169.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 27c | 169$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 62c | 163.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 161$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 149$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 145.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 33c | 140$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 75c | 133.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 42c | 133$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 52c | 131.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 43c | 128.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 72c | 125.58$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 116.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 33c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed Yes | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 103.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 59c | 102.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 38c | 100.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 75c | 90.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 38c | 90.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 12c | 85.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 79.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 59c | 78.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 77.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 15c | 76.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 67c | 72.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 71.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…5bf7backed Yes | 19c | 67.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 42c | 63.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked Yes | 41c | 62.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 62.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 61.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 61.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 60c | 59.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 51c | 58.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 18c | 58.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 53.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 40c | 52.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bb…ef2ebacked Yes | 46c | 51.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 60c | 48.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 58c | 47.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…8f80backed No | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked No | 51c | 46.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 32c | 45.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 63c | 44.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.