Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc39c03329ce89a9ed4b020274bdb932a2ab9c9556072b262265f632768333b78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,289$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.82 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 11c | 1,029$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.77 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 865.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 9c | 844.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 6c | 733.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 69c | 721.01$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.01 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 27c | 606.84$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 22c | 596$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 560.31$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.39 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed Yes | 8c | 516.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 15c | 506.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 23c | 468.83$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…e1b7backed Yes | 13c | 408.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9771…db67backed Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 10c | 393.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked No | 75c | 351.66$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 307.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1a…b51fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 18c | 299.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 20c | 241.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 237.09$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ca…60aebacked Yes | 9c | 214.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 207.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 197.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 20c | 186$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 28c | 182$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 157.82$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 153.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 35c | 143.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 139.81$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 31c | 138.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 34c | 136$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…d340backed Yes | 37c | 129.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 78c | 125.58$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 121.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 13c | 120.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 116.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 72c | 114.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 111.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…1a49backed No | 64c | 111.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 30c | 98.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 87.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 80c | 79.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 75.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 28c | 73.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 22c | 67.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked Yes | 37c | 59.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 37c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 54.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 64c | 49.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 49.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 48.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 47.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked No | 76c | 46.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 60c | 43.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 33c | 43.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044b…6239backed Yes | 37c | 40.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked No | 72c | 40.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 38c | 40.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c30…7673backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 80c | 38.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb402…675abacked Yes | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 36.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 34.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…c6cabacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 29.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 39c | 29.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 73c | 27.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 64c | 26.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.