Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f29cbd1de3a2acecbc8c293a2c67be0953969695736761d8b1183c10a70c8f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 48c | 996.71$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.73 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 56c | 969.73$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.18 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…0510backed Yes | 55c | 943.44$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 931.65$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.06 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 925.22$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 32c | 925.18$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.44 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 62c | 886.27$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.68 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 42c | 846.76$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.54 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0123…d399backed Yes | 52c | 817.17$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.51 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 6c | 786.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 36c | 733.56$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.32 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 48c | 702.83$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.74 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 692.59$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 53c | 670$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.85 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…ee29backed No | 72c | 631.14$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 45c | 613.91$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.32 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 19c | 573.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 495.55$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…5cc2backed No | 3c | 449.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 38c | 436.18$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.93 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 47c | 418.23$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 410.77$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 58c | 399.97$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 399.31$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.66 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 48c | 351.27$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 47c | 318.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.03 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…1a49backed No | 61c | 306.32$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 40c | 299.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked No | 3c | 299.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 42c | 299.13$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 40c | 298.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 42c | 293.87$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.14 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 288.22$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 286$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.46 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 47c | 284.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.59 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 277.16$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 58c | 272.69$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 41c | 246.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.82 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 37c | 243.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 222.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 221.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 45c | 214.64$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 207.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 43c | 201.02$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…4f7abacked Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 45c | 176$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…f981backed Yes | 47c | 175.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 47c | 174.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 59c | 172.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 39c | 172.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 171.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.69 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 50c | 170.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…1199backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 35c | 168.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 161$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 68c | 158$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 35c | 156.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.97 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 46c | 155$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 48c | 138$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 130$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 128.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 51c | 125.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 31c | 118$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 117.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 43c | 116.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 26c | 112.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 110.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 48c | 105.94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…835dbacked Yes | 48c | 104.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 104.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 103$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 102.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 43c | 102.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1d51backed Yes | 46c | 95.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…0969backed No | 71c | 95.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 43c | 94.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 55c | 90.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 87.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 87.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…c6cabacked Yes | 57c | 83.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 81.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked No | 47c | 77.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d88…6adebacked Yes | 41c | 72.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 41c | 66.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 45c | 66.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 63.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.