NFL · resolved market
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdb79c231b8bd8220c34492ec80cb0125928e486f3a4aa0b0ffeff2031b1badf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 28c | 2,776$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.15 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 16c | 2,238$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.83 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 2c | 1,961$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Yes | 4c | 1,415$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Yes | 6c | 1,356$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,345$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 72c | 1,335$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.93 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2072…1201backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 4c | 976.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes | 14c | 918$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2591…b527backed Yes | 13c | 631.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 18c | 623.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb334…3e11backed Yes | 8c | 613.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked No | 72c | 552.61$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 28c | 538.66$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…a8ecbacked Yes | 10c | 487.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1357…8f29backed Yes | 6c | 474.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 76c | 373.95$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 26c | 366.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 73c | 350$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 26c | 343.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 6c | 340.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 23c | 332.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…8541backed Yes | 6c | 296.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 11c | 144.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…d738backed Yes | 12c | 133.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…2f3abacked Yes | 12c | 117.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…6869backed Yes | 12c | 116.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126c…3e7fbacked Yes | 12c | 111.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cde…5b3fbacked Yes | 12c | 111.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…bf9cbacked Yes | 12c | 108.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d0…b51ebacked Yes | 12c | 108.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0d…82b6backed Yes | 12c | 104.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 28c | 97.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 19c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 76c | 25.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North?this page
- Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North?No won
- Will the Cleveland Browns win the AFC North?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.