TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Shanxi Loongs vs. Shanghai Sharks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shanghai Sharksof Shanxi Loongs, Shanghai Sharks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,988 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9671…3a70backed Shanxi Loongs1c11,109$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Shanxi Loongs8c7,371$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.031650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Shanxi Loongs23c5,816$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.196346%29 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f09…9312backed Shanxi Loongs14c3,592$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Shanxi Loongs1c3,237$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.11598.2%13 W · 146 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ad…2d59backed Shanxi Loongs16c3,021$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.911931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Shanxi Loongs23c2,812$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.8812042.5%51 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Shanxi Loongs27c2,687$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.486246.8%29 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74c5…6cb7backed Shanghai Sharks77c1,842$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.53757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Shanghai Sharks73c1,724$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.833100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+77.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Shanxi Loongs5c1,457$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.653745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Shanghai Sharks74c1,357$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.12875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+28.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Shanghai Sharks76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.79887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick72cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4c0…92d8backed Shanghai Sharks73c1,243$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.615100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Shanxi Loongs26c1,129$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.571225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa39d…948dbacked Shanxi Loongs1c1,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Shanghai Sharks79c1,013$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.662846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Shanghai Sharks74c810.2$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.425046%23 W · 27 L-7.9wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-28.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4a3c…9320backed Shanghai Sharks79c721.03$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.173161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shanxi Loongs15c670.31$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9235234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Shanghai Sharks79c580.47$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.515152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Shanxi Loongs27c568.21$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9628943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Shanghai Sharks74c556.59$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.59650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7a…aff2backed Shanghai Sharks76c553.77$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Shanxi Loongs27c519.3$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.434427.3%12 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b7…125cbacked Shanghai Sharks76c410.25$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf927…2663backed Shanxi Loongs25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad8…075abacked Shanghai Sharks74c333$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Shanxi Loongs27c325.51$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.688845.5%40 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed Shanxi Loongs24c320.83$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Shanxi Loongs23c314.69$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4426935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Shanxi Loongs24c311.27$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.178534.1%29 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Shanghai Sharks77c304.98$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.151163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Shanxi Loongs16c302.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.554251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Shanxi Loongs4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Shanxi Loongs9c271.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5726544.5%118 W · 147 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked Shanghai Sharks76c264.84$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.843161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed Shanghai Sharks76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3542…24f0backed Shanghai Sharks76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…099ebacked Shanghai Sharks77c258.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.644100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f09…969cbacked Shanghai Sharks78c256.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.79683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1942…131bbacked Shanghai Sharks78c256.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Shanxi Loongs19c250.27$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Shanghai Sharks77c203.26$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.339946.5%46 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Shanxi Loongs20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Shanxi Loongs25c194.6$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6522231.5%70 W · 152 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Shanghai Sharks76c191.67$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Shanghai Sharks76c184$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.877462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Shanghai Sharks76c182$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.833228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-43.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef71…898bbacked Shanxi Loongs21c181$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Shanghai Sharks76c169$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3810941.3%45 W · 64 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Shanxi Loongs25c162.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0731446.2%145 W · 169 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Shanghai Sharks74c161$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.863953.8%21 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabdd…cb3fbacked Shanxi Loongs23c153.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353721.6%8 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Shanxi Loongs14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204643.5%20 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3c…3206backed Shanghai Sharks73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Shanghai Sharks73c128.93$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.186848.5%33 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x700a…58a5backed Shanxi Loongs11c113.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.38229.1%2 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.23per pick32cpaid-76%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Shanxi Loongs22c106.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8125517.6%45 W · 210 L-29.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Shanxi Loongs13c105.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3636939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shanxi Loongs13c105.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0943543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Shanxi Loongs16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.471533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Shanghai Sharks74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked Shanghai Sharks77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe52e…ac6dbacked Shanxi Loongs11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x026c…8d76backed Shanghai Sharks76c95.97$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x529c…053ebacked Shanghai Sharks73c95.89$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.891687.5%14 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick67cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Shanghai Sharks74c90$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.55949.2%29 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc224…5f98backed Shanghai Sharks78c89.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.63100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00b0…2c50backed Shanxi Loongs23c85.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Shanxi Loongs13c80.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.466363.5%40 W · 23 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed Shanxi Loongs25c78.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…f15cbacked Shanghai Sharks79c76.48$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.812055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Shanxi Loongs26c71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.463348.5%16 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Shanxi Loongs23c70.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.031040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b7a…3ce8backed Shanghai Sharks77c64.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1bc…946dbacked Shanghai Sharks78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.13100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6281…e326backed Shanghai Sharks79c63.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.161566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5129…40f3backed Shanghai Sharks76c56.58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Shanghai Sharks74c53$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.787646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Shanxi Loongs20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…32a7backed Shanghai Sharks75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Shanxi Loongs25c47.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.157341.1%30 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+39.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shanghai Sharks76c42.18$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1213545.9%62 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Shanghai Sharks73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.83751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f71…9a06backed Shanghai Sharks78c35.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.96100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Shanghai Sharks76c35.54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.532634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-42.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x61bb…1627backed Shanghai Sharks73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x680d…98b8backed Shanghai Sharks79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Shanghai Sharks71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.25366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6097…1eebbacked Shanghai Sharks80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Shanghai Sharks77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.752458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b60…9436backed Shanghai Sharks80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Shanghai Sharks78c23.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.22771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x382c…2261backed Shanghai Sharks75c22.84$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.71425%1 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick74cpaid-66.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff7f…bb30backed Shanghai Sharks72c21.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.02560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Shanghai Sharks79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.23050%15 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…f4eebacked Shanghai Sharks78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Shanghai Sharks74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee3…612dbacked Shanghai Sharks80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.75475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.