Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe2b9faf9d4dbf4f4ec914023cc0948e245cdc79314e1241fc806bd20677a284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 46c | 5,639$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,050.31 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 5,089$4,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.88 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 53c | 4,805$2,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,558.4 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00c…8154backed Yes | 70c | 2,425$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 37c | 2,238$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.58 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 47c | 2,141$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.16 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 73c | 1,830$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.13 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 47c | 1,203$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.1 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 36c | 935$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.98 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…d25cbacked Yes | 55c | 821.82$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed No | 69c | 769.95$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.36 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 33c | 678.83$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.36 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 48c | 665.85$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.49 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8f…b9b2backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6214…c4a0backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee6…a1efbacked Yes | 25c | 599.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 40c | 533$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.37 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked No | 46c | 512.21$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.22 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 58c | 510.99$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.52 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 504.8$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.34 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 42c | 480.6$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.72 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Yes | 28c | 292.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…5e9fbacked Yes | 71c | 282.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 256.12$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked No | 48c | 251.6$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.83 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +19.0wins | +0.28per pick | 46cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 7c | 247.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 54c | 240.1$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 237.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.46 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked No | 48c | 209$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69d0…6732backed Yes | 69c | 208.15$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 72c | 204.87$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 40c | 203.28$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed No | 49c | 190.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 28c | 161.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 75c | 160.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 72c | 155.44$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…ce75backed No | 73c | 153$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 71c | 149.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 46c | 146.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…19e2backed Yes | 34c | 132$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…1ffcbacked Yes | 32c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 27c | 109.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed No | 51c | 97.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 70c | 94.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…d05ebacked Yes | 24c | 91.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…6237backed Yes | 76c | 83.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0b…5577backed Yes | 28c | 82.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked Yes | 56c | 81.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 63c | 66.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed No | 74c | 56.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 28c | 51.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed No | 46c | 41.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -7.5wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 70c | 33.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 67c | 32.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4b…8176backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 39c | 27.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 27.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…771cbacked Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 61c | 17.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split end in a draw?this page
- Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-07-16?No won
- Will MŠK Žilina win on 2026-07-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.