Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe46794293a3d19285ab9f739d5dcdf5d72d91ba12df3c698107cb1b9df8fed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 1,095$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.01 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 692.26$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.5 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 467.93$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.41 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 44c | 433.82$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.6 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 23c | 409.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 41c | 396.83$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.81 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 30c | 332.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 33c | 329.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 37c | 327.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 61c | 303.28$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 364 | 22.8%83 W · 281 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 35c | 289.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 33c | 280.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed No | 70c | 275.76$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 58c | 269.02$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.78 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 266.8$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b16…29e2backed Yes | 44c | 249.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 25c | 219.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 38c | 218.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 209.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 60c | 205.39$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 203.77$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…1398backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 188.18$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed No | 60c | 173.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 168.28$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 66c | 168.2$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 68c | 161$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 30c | 159.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…0b89backed Yes | 31c | 156.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 154.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 152.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 151.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 20c | 151$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 12c | 140.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 139.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…ee29backed Yes | 7c | 137.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 129.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 128.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked No | 74c | 119.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 144 | 32.6%47 W · 97 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 42c | 117.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 31c | 112.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…2c19backed Yes | 31c | 103.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 49c | 103.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…0a5cbacked Yes | 34c | 102.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…739abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 501 | 23.8%119 W · 382 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 99.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 36c | 94.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 57c | 93.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 92.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 90.64$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 85.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 79.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 78.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 76.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 33c | 73.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 70c | 67.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 70c | 64.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe610…7ce9backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 58.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 33c | 57.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 56.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 54c | 55.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 61c | 51.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 151 | 33.1%50 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 70c | 49.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1d51backed Yes | 34c | 47.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…d2e9backed No | 49c | 47.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 47c | 47.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 46.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 29c | 46.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 33c | 46.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 46c | 46.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 43.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 29c | 43.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 39c | 40.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 66c | 37.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.