Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x489a33dad37597cb180c65cf4e4c0e8ab8f144032170818073c7ae6581d0a8c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 69c | 2,351$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.09 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 51c | 1,812$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.88 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 46c | 1,606$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.75 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 75c | 1,552$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 364 | 22.8%83 W · 281 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed No | 31c | 1,374$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.79 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 1,157$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.26 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 52c | 985.68$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.38 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 43c | 952.5$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.63 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 763.5$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.66 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 56c | 710.87$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.56 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed Yes | 50c | 697.37$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.37 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 68c | 648.16$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.93 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 57c | 645.21$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.73 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 31c | 568.36$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.73 | 554 | 22.4%124 W · 430 L | -21.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 531.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 37c | 500$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.26 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 66c | 500$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.4 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 485.49$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.14 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 47c | 482.63$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.12 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 51c | 481.01$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.26 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 461.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.84 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 61c | 380.6$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 38c | 361.19$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.94 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 326.47$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 36c | 322.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.52 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…85ddbacked No | 62c | 316.91$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 267$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.75 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 49c | 247.32$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.7 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 198.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 43c | 191.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.58 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…2c19backed Yes | 28c | 184$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 182.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 43c | 170.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 32c | 157.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 155$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 147.74$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 146.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 34c | 140$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…0510backed Yes | 65c | 139$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 62c | 136.19$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 245 | 68.2%167 W · 78 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 135.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.38 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 75c | 132.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 131.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 128.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 28c | 125.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 46c | 121.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked No | 26c | 121.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 118.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 50c | 117.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 116.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 69c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked No | 24c | 109.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 80 | 18.8%15 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 32c | 107.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 34c | 100.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…4839backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 99.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 40c | 98.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed No | 18c | 93.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 58c | 91.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 55c | 90.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 49c | 85.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…92d3backed Yes | 48c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 35c | 79.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 501 | 23.8%119 W · 382 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 79.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 30c | 78.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 77.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 33c | 76.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 75.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 42c | 74.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 61c | 70.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…a5ccbacked No | 70c | 69.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 40c | 69.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 39c | 69.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 32c | 67.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 34c | 67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 66.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 35c | 61.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…b468backed Yes | 29c | 60.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 126 | 26.2%33 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 144 | 32.6%47 W · 97 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 33c | 58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 69c | 57.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 55c | 56.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 56.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 55c | 55.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 34c | 54.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 68c | 54.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.