Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfecfde90105c41395dc81ca523066a123dd5f5dded2599e4a7091ac340c1505f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 73c | 524.69$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.65 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 426.4$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 412.52$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.58 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 315.4$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 287.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.83 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 25c | 232.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.48 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 74c | 231$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.97 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 71c | 229.25$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.77 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 10c | 219.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 49c | 184.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 181.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 27c | 167.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.47 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 149$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 24c | 140.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 140.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 21c | 139.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 27c | 112.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 29c | 104.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 99.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 44c | 95.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 92.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 75c | 90.48$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 86.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 17c | 83.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 61c | 71.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 67.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 19c | 62.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 65c | 61.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…cfbdbacked No | 62c | 59.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 45c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 39c | 55.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 50c | 55.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 72c | 52.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 49.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 43c | 48.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 64c | 46.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 29c | 43.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 75c | 43.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 30c | 42.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 29c | 42.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 73c | 38.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 55c | 36.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 32.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 77c | 31.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 30.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 51c | 25.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 24.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 22.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 20.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 19.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 65c | 17.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked Yes | 70c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 78c | 15.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.