TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,467
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,467 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes46c2,059$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.151,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No54c461$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.922,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes44c449.49$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021829.4%64 W · 154 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No71c404.17$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9767158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed No56c400$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.43542.9%15 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes36c394.48$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes35c364.43$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2539951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No59c326.65$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.974,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed Yes52c300$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8318641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes57c261.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9919559.5%116 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes44c246.24$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.911,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No57c242$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.064,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No52c214$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.723,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No54c207.92$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.931,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.33,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes54c193.22$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.965,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…7bfcbacked No48c183.1$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.731346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes31c170.26$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes51c153.8$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8435323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c149$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.665,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No53c148.95$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.354,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes43c148.79$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9823731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No42c140.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1339543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes50c119.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe763…649abacked Yes45c118.53$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.341154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+54.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No46c112.23$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff1f…e2e6backed No49c112$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8514254.2%77 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No61c108.9$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9721338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No55c103.35$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2860550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac22…363ebacked Yes27c99.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9514243.7%62 W · 80 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3f5…3464backed Yes51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes51c98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9822740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes27c89.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2240438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c88.39$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.565,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No56c86.35$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.13,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No70c84.55$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.214,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes33c71.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6222932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25ed…463ebacked No54c70.81$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.523240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No42c70$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.35,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No54c69.01$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.91,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No38c68.73$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.291,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes40c67.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.866,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3082742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes65c61.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes44c61.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a39…44b7backed No51c61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.89560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6282…35d0backed No66c60.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51675%12 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No57c58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.941,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes48c57.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6254253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.053,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes63c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.512350.4%62 W · 61 L-14.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes57c43.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.941,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No47c41.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1414151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes24c41.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0429948.2%144 W · 155 L+28.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+24.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes55c40.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.24,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.218240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.48,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.44,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1b…e8d0backed Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed Yes43c37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9615062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No35c34.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked No69c32.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0947239.8%188 W · 284 L+31.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No43c32.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.472,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c30.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.412,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.631,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.789557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No78c28.94$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.292,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf28…e94bbacked Yes64c28.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.24742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No68c27.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0248261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No56c25.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.451,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ec…082cbacked Yes44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117035.7%25 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes47c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7137465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c24.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.991,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x410b…c47cbacked Yes63c24.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.11742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked No70c23.68$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.142948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No56c22.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.824,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No52c21.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.181,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No68c21.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6738560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No59c20.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.486,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.837541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9543139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.823845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.429354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.839768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.692761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No56c19.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0db9…a4a8backed No61c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.385731.6%18 W · 39 L-16.6wins-0.29per pick61cpaid-52.7%equal weight27-0.20 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No78c18.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.992,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No66c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.240862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011146.8%52 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…4bc3backed No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No73c15.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.132,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.