Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfef3cbb530007a01bfc60f55f24542259513fd4e3cc783e434fee3cde428b810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 38c | 1,074$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.69 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 956.1$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.62 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 445.5$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 62c | 415.62$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.87 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 369.88$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 320.38$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 319$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 26c | 296.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 35c | 291.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 269.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 79c | 263.74$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 209.07$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 203.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 173.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 38c | 156.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 133.84$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 130.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 65c | 120.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 118$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 64c | 117.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 112$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 63c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 87.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 79.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 73.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 69.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 35c | 64.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…2f8dbacked Yes | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 60.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 22c | 57.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe183…3e16backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 46.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 59c | 46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 27c | 45.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 64c | 45.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 66c | 42.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 64c | 40.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…507cbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 62c | 36.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 32.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 30.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 36c | 28.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 40c | 25.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 24.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 66c | 21.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 61c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 68c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 64c | 15.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.