Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46815348c28efd6d0205e047a38aa6bd891d01538e1f979f72949d5a6a38e657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 46c | 2,592$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.4 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 1,102$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 54c | 1,100$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.83 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 993$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.3 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 700.12$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.61 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 45c | 671.26$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.45 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 48c | 607.51$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.13 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 23c | 528.12$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.47 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 502.85$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.45 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 399.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 16c | 370.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 363$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 45c | 328.37$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 46c | 320$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 58c | 277.63$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 46c | 225.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 204.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 181$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 7c | 178.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 164.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 118$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…227dbacked Yes | 58c | 112.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 11c | 107.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 104.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 97.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 49c | 94.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 43c | 84.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 17c | 81.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 78.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 74.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 38c | 64.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 58c | 63.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…9811backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 31c | 57.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 53.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 59c | 51.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 58c | 49.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…2f8dbacked Yes | 46c | 45.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 45c | 44.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 53c | 43.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…b8a8backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 58c | 42.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 48c | 41.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 59c | 39.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 31c | 39.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 71c | 38.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 57c | 36.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…8ed8backed Yes | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…b206backed Yes | 65c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 77c | 25.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11a…2977backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 49c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 70c | 16.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…c435backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.