WNBA · resolved market
Dream vs Aces
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffbebb11085f7287c815622e4ac64b051ec89e4a0822872d4f5248b8314d7e11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Acesof Dream, Aces
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Aces | 54c | 40,635$21,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,894.11 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Aces | 52c | 26,654$13,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,789.38 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Dream | 47c | 20,467$9,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,619.36 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Dream | 47c | 11,265$5,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,285.31 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Dream | 44c | 11,024$4,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,880.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Dream | 16c | 9,348$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Aces | 66c | 8,600$5,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,931.95 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Aces | 56c | 6,995$3,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,077.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Aces | 52c | 5,910$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,810.08 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…16aebacked Aces | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Aces | 53c | 4,765$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.05 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Aces | 53c | 4,343$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.21 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Dream | 43c | 3,260$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.94 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Aces | 53c | 2,578$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.42 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Dream | 43c | 2,301$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.6 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Dream | 45c | 1,990$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Aces | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.51per pick | 65cpaid | -73%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Aces | 56c | 1,872$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.19 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Aces | 60c | 1,453$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.29 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Aces | 69c | 1,388$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.19 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Dream | 37c | 1,258$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.78 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Dream | 43c | 1,207$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dream | 46c | 1,206$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.88 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Dream | 49c | 955.58$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.68 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Aces | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Aces | 56c | 675.94$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Dream | 47c | 599.99$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Aces | 52c | 560$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Aces | 50c | 544.14$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.63 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Aces | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Aces | 63c | 470$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Dream | 31c | 321.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Aces | 53c | 279.57$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…ee61backed Dream | 48c | 263.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Aces | 51c | 221.23$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.23 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Dream | 48c | 210.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Dream | 48c | 204$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Dream | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Dream | 43c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Aces | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Dream | 51c | 196.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Dream | 51c | 194.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Dream | 6c | 190$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Aces | 53c | 173.58$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -8.3wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Dream | 45c | 171$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Dream | 49c | 139.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Dream | 43c | 139.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Dream | 48c | 135.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Dream | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 62 | 4.8%3 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Aces | 54c | 125.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Dream | 23c | 120.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Aces | 53c | 119.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Aces | 49c | 118$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Aces | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Aces | 52c | 92.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +107%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Dream | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…6ff0backed Dream | 49c | 77.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Aces | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Dream | 44c | 56.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Aces | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Dream | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…04c5backed Dream | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c02…eb5ebacked Aces | 79c | 40.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Aces | 51c | 37.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Dream | 43c | 31.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…e776backed Aces | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Aces | 53c | 26.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.