TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: RED Academy vs Ei Nerd Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ei Nerd Esportsof RED Academy, Ei Nerd Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$90,564
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$116,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,564 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ei Nerd Esports67c8,854$5,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.871,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Ei Nerd Esports51c7,500$3,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,668.7253355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed RED Academy1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff88…00e9backed RED Academy10c2,994$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.671175.1%6 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed RED Academy31c2,638$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.4686943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Ei Nerd Esports64c2,342$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.792,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked Ei Nerd Esports74c2,141$1,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.7735058.6%205 W · 145 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed Ei Nerd Esports58c2,029$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.7753545.2%242 W · 293 L+0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked RED Academy45c2,003$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.571,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked RED Academy36c1,953$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.7528544.9%128 W · 157 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Ei Nerd Esports64c1,431$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.8146650.9%237 W · 229 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked RED Academy1c1,301$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0135435.3%125 W · 229 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c90…5b3ebacked Ei Nerd Esports46c1,240$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.711947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked Ei Nerd Esports54c1,212$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.6626245.8%120 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Ei Nerd Esports74c1,070$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.231471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Ei Nerd Esports69c966.34$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.1963742.7%272 W · 365 L-2.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Ei Nerd Esports74c955$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.7582953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed RED Academy46c838.79$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39040446%186 W · 218 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6777…1a8dbacked Ei Nerd Esports58c804.33$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.3622751.5%117 W · 110 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed RED Academy29c794.6$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.864247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked RED Academy25c778$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0512430.6%38 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked RED Academy38c763.55$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.961,97130.5%601 W · 1,370 L-170.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked RED Academy28c755$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21190537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed RED Academy26c750$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19522146.6%103 W · 118 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Ei Nerd Esports78c746.12$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.1260855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Ei Nerd Esports77c740.42$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.081,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa500…39d1backed RED Academy22c585.42$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7912548.8%61 W · 64 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed Ei Nerd Esports55c568.22$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.8830546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked RED Academy52c563.17$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.8535659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed RED Academy48c519.67$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.431,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Ei Nerd Esports72c513$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.11,46443.4%636 W · 828 L-32.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Ei Nerd Esports53c490.5$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.783,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed RED Academy24c448$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2260053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked RED Academy52c435.75$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.5966845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85f2…5990backed RED Academy27c425.93$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed RED Academy26c419.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.233332.7%109 W · 224 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed RED Academy40c406.65$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.131,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18b7…fff9backed RED Academy5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055110.3%57 W · 494 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked RED Academy26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009849%48 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed RED Academy26c381.25$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.912,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Ei Nerd Esports64c353.31$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.531,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed RED Academy27c349.43$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3534255.6%190 W · 152 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed RED Academy31c322.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10077746.2%359 W · 418 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b73…02c0backed Ei Nerd Esports63c315.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.051764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…13dabacked RED Academy20c305.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.55839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Ei Nerd Esports61c295.35$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.421,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…5267backed Ei Nerd Esports61c260.88$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8815571%110 W · 45 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb68…9dc5backed Ei Nerd Esports47c256.48$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.487159.2%42 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Ei Nerd Esports59c250$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.595048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed RED Academy53c228.38$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3263426%165 W · 469 L-90.0wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-54%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Ei Nerd Esports74c213.72$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8864749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd2…b613backed RED Academy48c210.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025660.5%155 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed RED Academy28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8774949.7%372 W · 377 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e5…2498backed RED Academy20c171.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4509…58aebacked Ei Nerd Esports67c164.33$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.561,05539.6%418 W · 637 L-74.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed RED Academy25c164.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5334448.3%166 W · 178 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed RED Academy25c162$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.529038.6%112 W · 178 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe197…71ebbacked RED Academy53c143.22$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.827745.8%127 W · 150 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed RED Academy58c140$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.212747.2%60 W · 67 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed RED Academy40c139.28$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8947838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Ei Nerd Esports57c127.39$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1621836.7%80 W · 138 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked RED Academy52c124$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.484250%21 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x868f…5da6backed Ei Nerd Esports70c120.73$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7319656.6%111 W · 85 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Ei Nerd Esports60c118.77$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2566559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed RED Academy26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3092342.7%394 W · 529 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked RED Academy63c114$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.291,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8638…639ebacked RED Academy27c111.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306045%27 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked RED Academy39c103.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1435341.9%148 W · 205 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed RED Academy50c99.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.71,54354.8%845 W · 698 L+75.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54fa…2c2ebacked RED Academy29c96.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2840%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked RED Academy64c96.36$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6745937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed Ei Nerd Esports51c93.53$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.28848.9%43 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed RED Academy33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39c2…dc0bbacked RED Academy28c89.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256358.7%37 W · 26 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5c3…13e5backed Ei Nerd Esports39c77.73$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.739051.1%46 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d4f…6cb9backed RED Academy33c77.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.372343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9575…cd83backed RED Academy27c74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9816046.9%75 W · 85 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a26…e195backed Ei Nerd Esports73c72.16$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.484035%14 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2888…f1a4backed RED Academy23c70$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.153932.5%175 W · 364 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked RED Academy44c62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.042,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked RED Academy26c62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1225240.1%101 W · 151 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc4…e2b9backed RED Academy33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.815045.3%68 W · 82 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f0…14fabacked RED Academy35c56.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked Ei Nerd Esports62c56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2511357.5%65 W · 48 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd2…2b8fbacked RED Academy27c56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1242851.2%219 W · 209 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Ei Nerd Esports72c54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0994444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Ei Nerd Esports56c50.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3933857.7%195 W · 143 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Ei Nerd Esports71c45.58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.291,31049.2%644 W · 666 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe660…514fbacked Ei Nerd Esports45c43.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.784146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed RED Academy52c43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.361,63846.7%765 W · 873 L-26.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed5…8165backed Ei Nerd Esports47c42.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8334844.8%156 W · 192 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5151…645cbacked RED Academy24c41.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0145444.3%201 W · 253 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c0…718fbacked Ei Nerd Esports58c40.49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f40…6167backed RED Academy30c34.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.392045%9 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Ei Nerd Esports74c33.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6137343.4%162 W · 211 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Ei Nerd Esports58c33.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.891,35731.2%423 W · 934 L-129.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Ei Nerd Esports52c32.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4926154.8%143 W · 118 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecab…f7ecbacked RED Academy41c32.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3117712.4%22 W · 155 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed RED Academy44c31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5325342.7%108 W · 145 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d1d…b968backed Ei Nerd Esports67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1013470.9%95 W · 39 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.