Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x006a31affad64b6c5fc8ed9ce8f0d32424aedd4e322bfb2efd0d81c1828b0aaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 66c | 748.44$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.79 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 41c | 492.3$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.61 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 340$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.54 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 64c | 210$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 41c | 191.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.03 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 190$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.73 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 9c | 174.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.34 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 168.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 124.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 52c | 114.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 140 | 15.7%22 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 112.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 83.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 308 | 54.9%169 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 70.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac12…bb91backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 57c | 47.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 45.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 34c | 41.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 41.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 55c | 40.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 38.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 51c | 34.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 53c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 78c | 33.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 47c | 29.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 217 | 57.6%125 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 57c | 26.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6668…9b4dbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f1…f437backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b84…a108backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 71c | 17.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 64c | 16.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.