TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Tidebound (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Tideboundof Xtreme Gaming, Team Tidebound
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$87,319
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,041

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,319 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac0d…b006backed Xtreme Gaming63c12,370$7,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,795.1310661.3%65 W · 41 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Tidebound37c12,011$4,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,566.9322848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Team Tidebound43c7,000$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,989.978253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Tidebound39c5,806$2,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,566.621,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ba9…0765backed Xtreme Gaming73c5,090$3,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,733.552050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Team Tidebound44c4,568$2,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,567.2919148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Xtreme Gaming57c4,459$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.6827645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Tidebound41c3,799$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,229.6889440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d6…b2e0backed Team Tidebound28c3,529$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,537.014746.8%22 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Xtreme Gaming59c3,281$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.7919147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Team Tidebound41c2,859$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.7617950.3%90 W · 89 L+14.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Xtreme Gaming76c2,116$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,605.9961057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228a…1094backed Xtreme Gaming58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1601266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x709e…6aedbacked Team Tidebound42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4612…d4b2backed Team Tidebound57c1,761$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+51.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked Xtreme Gaming57c1,754$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Xtreme Gaming64c1,628$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.9823465%152 W · 82 L-1.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Team Tidebound30c1,586$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.594438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Xtreme Gaming61c1,545$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.052560%15 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Team Tidebound63c1,288$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.5330138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Tidebound42c1,251$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.412,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Xtreme Gaming59c1,100$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64615653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe48…5895backed Xtreme Gaming56c1,071$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60012147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x471d…19cfbacked Xtreme Gaming57c1,050$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Xtreme Gaming58c1,037$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.4819047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32eb…0c1bbacked Xtreme Gaming56c887.76$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.964257.1%24 W · 18 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+37.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Xtreme Gaming56c850.14$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.0810136.6%37 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b25…b5ccbacked Xtreme Gaming60c833.33$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-74.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Team Tidebound43c690.3$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.9662841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee5…ac96backed Xtreme Gaming3c602.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Team Tidebound40c597.8$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.380544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Xtreme Gaming66c590.56$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38819743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked Team Tidebound39c577.94$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.799838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd892…f6d9backed Xtreme Gaming57c576.81$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.592035%7 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Xtreme Gaming53c575$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Team Tidebound47c540.56$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.236442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0050…2eb8backed Xtreme Gaming57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Xtreme Gaming70c525.88$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.1626957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Xtreme Gaming2c500.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109756.7%55 W · 42 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb53a…fcd3backed Xtreme Gaming55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…b3c4backed Team Tidebound45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Team Tidebound47c465.52$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.5223546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Xtreme Gaming65c456.89$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.8754445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked Team Tidebound43c431.84$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.185137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Xtreme Gaming52c429.33$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.363925.6%10 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked Team Tidebound30c400$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2802133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked Team Tidebound60c374.1$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.2213450.7%68 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed Xtreme Gaming56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011551.3%59 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a5d…99ebbacked Team Tidebound32c354.73$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.9514668.5%100 W · 46 L+14.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d60…be72backed Xtreme Gaming30c340.85$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10219949.2%98 W · 101 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Team Tidebound36c323.59$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.12740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+36%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x46fe…a43dbacked Xtreme Gaming56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Team Tidebound50c266.43$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5118075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Team Tidebound54c264.64$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.4456848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37d…b9cebacked Xtreme Gaming51c259.98$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.993357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Team Tidebound44c245.58$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5221847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Xtreme Gaming66c241.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7231545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Xtreme Gaming56c240$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.47047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Tidebound33c238.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8691356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Team Tidebound46c236.62$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.6241248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Xtreme Gaming61c225$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.2557455.4%318 W · 256 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Xtreme Gaming60c210$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12659250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b48…4705backed Team Tidebound39c199.57$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.746854.4%37 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6ed…3ae6backed Xtreme Gaming66c192.48$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.043458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01db…16e3backed Xtreme Gaming56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Xtreme Gaming56c176.92$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0814251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Xtreme Gaming70c175.44$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.7522033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ea…6f62backed Xtreme Gaming56c174.99$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.751250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d9d7backed Xtreme Gaming60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009750.5%49 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10087645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8942…9ea9backed Xtreme Gaming40c151.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606943.5%30 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked Xtreme Gaming60c143.39$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.585756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Xtreme Gaming54c133.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.934154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Team Tidebound37c126.2$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5111253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b84…48e3backed Xtreme Gaming61c116.89$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.073050%15 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x62b7…f260backed Xtreme Gaming20c101.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020735.3%73 W · 134 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb382…c498backed Xtreme Gaming60c100.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607159.2%42 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Xtreme Gaming55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2afa…fa8abacked Xtreme Gaming10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Team Tidebound44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564438.6%17 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb4…a38bbacked Team Tidebound45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e77…655fbacked Xtreme Gaming55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Xtreme Gaming56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505464.8%35 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Xtreme Gaming56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb861…27ffbacked Team Tidebound24c83.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.338247.6%39 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Xtreme Gaming64c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.23557.1%20 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Tidebound46c79.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0386949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a73…9daabacked Xtreme Gaming63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502875%21 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Xtreme Gaming42c72.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.525538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3099…d252backed Team Tidebound70c68.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.217570.7%53 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ad4…721fbacked Xtreme Gaming57c65.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.526844.1%30 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Xtreme Gaming55c63.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1860542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Xtreme Gaming55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.13158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked Team Tidebound34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8220339.9%81 W · 122 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614b…5845backed Xtreme Gaming57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305874.1%43 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0a1…1c72backed Xtreme Gaming57c52.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Xtreme Gaming62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3137832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc10d…4532backed Xtreme Gaming57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c5a…ca43backed Xtreme Gaming29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed Xtreme Gaming57c48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.361450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.