Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Marton Fucsovics vs Denis Shapovalov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x018cb6eac29b8189cb7cd722153b0631d677d5c7be6839b049b15e72df5797fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Fucsovics, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Fucsovics | 49c | 23,968$11,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,657.53 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Shapovalov | 51c | 21,737$11,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,685.95 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Fucsovics | 48c | 19,110$9,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,218.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Shapovalov | 52c | 13,031$6,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,254.88 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Shapovalov | 52c | 5,640$2,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.96 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Fucsovics | 51c | 5,000$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Shapovalov | 49c | 4,141$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.51 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Fucsovics | 48c | 2,222$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.56 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…53c8backed Shapovalov | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…e633backed Fucsovics | 51c | 1,737$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Fucsovics | 52c | 1,652$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.58 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Shapovalov | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Shapovalov | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…d601backed Shapovalov | 52c | 1,050$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Shapovalov | 71c | 966.48$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.49 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Shapovalov | 51c | 861.45$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.49 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Shapovalov | 51c | 800.47$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.23 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Fucsovics | 50c | 709.98$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.99 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Fucsovics | 49c | 615.57$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.63 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Shapovalov | 52c | 577$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.96 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Shapovalov | 50c | 410.71$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.05 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fucsovics | 42c | 342.22$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.89 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Shapovalov | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Fucsovics | 47c | 280$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Shapovalov | 53c | 227.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Fucsovics | 13c | 214.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fucsovics | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fucsovics | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Fucsovics | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…bd96backed Fucsovics | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Fucsovics | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…512bbacked Shapovalov | 52c | 191.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Fucsovics | 38c | 186.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Shapovalov | 51c | 183$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Shapovalov | 56c | 178.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Shapovalov | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed Shapovalov | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Shapovalov | 74c | 137.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Shapovalov | 52c | 105.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Shapovalov | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed Shapovalov | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Fucsovics | 44c | 92.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…4eb0backed Fucsovics | 48c | 90.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Shapovalov | 54c | 88.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Shapovalov | 71c | 86.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…2a64backed Fucsovics | 39c | 84.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Fucsovics | 31c | 79.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Shapovalov | 52c | 53.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…2b2abacked Shapovalov | 54c | 52.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…751ebacked Shapovalov | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Shapovalov | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4610…0ccabacked Fucsovics | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…226cbacked Fucsovics | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…253bbacked Shapovalov | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…43d0backed Shapovalov | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Shapovalov | 56c | 39.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Shapovalov | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…26ebbacked Shapovalov | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 57cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Shapovalov | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Shapovalov | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Shapovalov | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.