TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Phoenix: Darwin Blanch vs Billy Harris

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billy Harrisof Darwin Blanch, Billy Harris
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,628 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde9f…d43cbacked Billy Harris48c11,925$5,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,160.066,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57cb…58b4backed Darwin Blanch55c8,506$4,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,695911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-64.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Billy Harris36c7,072$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,505.6855646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Darwin Blanch63c5,923$3,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,735.6811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Darwin Blanch42c5,624$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.462,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ec…759fbacked Darwin Blanch2c4,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67630%0 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Darwin Blanch2c4,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67260%0 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5886…fe3bbacked Darwin Blanch1c3,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5273.7%1 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e1…f9a8backed Billy Harris24c3,119$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.169744.3%43 W · 54 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05c…66b9backed Darwin Blanch1c3,100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Billy Harris32c2,742$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,877.682,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Billy Harris64c2,284$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.138,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed Darwin Blanch1c1,818$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20420%0 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Billy Harris41c1,200$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.5418237.9%69 W · 113 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Billy Harris50c1,195$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.91,02650%513 W · 513 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Darwin Blanch66c1,164$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.323,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Darwin Blanch71c1,003$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.392,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea1…f17ebacked Darwin Blanch1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8300%0 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x641f…942bbacked Billy Harris47c895.17$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.199257.6%53 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Billy Harris19c835.22$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.1328726.8%77 W · 210 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Darwin Blanch72c835$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.621,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Darwin Blanch60c812.5$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.4776140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Billy Harris19c801.67$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.921,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Billy Harris40c801.16$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.2932031.3%100 W · 220 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Darwin Blanch1c800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10521.9%1 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid+31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Billy Harris14c744.05$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.551,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234f…db15backed Billy Harris41c684.47$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcab7…3af7backed Billy Harris41c630$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Darwin Blanch59c609$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.3197141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd44…495ebacked Billy Harris41c570$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Billy Harris74c541.83$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.871,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Darwin Blanch58c484.44$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.6736333.9%123 W · 240 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Billy Harris42c472.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.4817452.9%92 W · 82 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x796c…49dbbacked Billy Harris12c416.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.678448.8%41 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Billy Harris59c416.37$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.251,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd7…9ca2backed Darwin Blanch59c410$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Billy Harris37c397.3$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.335344.8%158 W · 195 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Billy Harris43c386.47$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.912,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd236…ad85backed Darwin Blanch59c370$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Billy Harris43c349.26$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.1157252.3%299 W · 273 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Billy Harris42c328.7$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.563247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac0…b014backed Darwin Blanch59c320$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.8560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a01…17fcbacked Darwin Blanch59c310$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ca…1277backed Darwin Blanch20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1071…e39ebacked Darwin Blanch20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+54.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Billy Harris35c284.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.652548%12 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Billy Harris20c276.69$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.6967836%244 W · 434 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf760…1334backed Billy Harris41c260$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.41850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1921…a4bdbacked Darwin Blanch59c250$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Billy Harris13c237$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.622,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1592…bdf4backed Darwin Blanch59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e36…3fd0backed Darwin Blanch20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick14cpaid+320.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Darwin Blanch57c175.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68af…ca81backed Billy Harris19c165.56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.2721720.3%44 W · 173 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…5c9fbacked Darwin Blanch56c164.48$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1115848.7%77 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Billy Harris39c162.6$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.411,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe99b…d599backed Darwin Blanch70c160$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.533470.6%24 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Billy Harris40c125.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8795742.1%403 W · 554 L-24.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Darwin Blanch68c125.67$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.989,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6eb…4c0bbacked Billy Harris40c125.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.441553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Darwin Blanch63c111.42$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.831,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c5…8c8abacked Billy Harris46c108.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.061723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-61.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cf6…6e6ebacked Billy Harris40c102.76$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.762934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0fc…b09fbacked Darwin Blanch32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.646758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Darwin Blanch60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6077967.8%528 W · 251 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Darwin Blanch20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204124.4%10 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2097…8b03backed Billy Harris16c99.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.992321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Darwin Blanch69c99.21$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0543058.6%252 W · 178 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Billy Harris46c97.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7132842.7%140 W · 188 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Billy Harris23c91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.364,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Billy Harris33c90.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9257349.6%284 W · 289 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Darwin Blanch48c89.38$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.973,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Billy Harris39c82.11$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.972,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x866a…de80backed Billy Harris17c81.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0513113.7%18 W · 113 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ace…3afdbacked Billy Harris40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4812152.1%63 W · 58 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Billy Harris40c76.93$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1666452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c5…cb95backed Billy Harris55c76$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1724244.6%108 W · 134 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked Darwin Blanch22c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.57828.2%22 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+31.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Darwin Blanch65c68.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.881933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Billy Harris32c67.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.064,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Darwin Blanch64c67.16$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.981,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb329…2a8cbacked Billy Harris43c64.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.951241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Darwin Blanch60c61.85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.881,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9010…df3ebacked Darwin Blanch38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf26f…8f93backed Darwin Blanch20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123619.4%7 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+57.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Billy Harris40c54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.496844.4%430 W · 538 L-1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Billy Harris27c53.57$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.353,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x6404…2a20backed Darwin Blanch67c52.37$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.144650%23 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Darwin Blanch61c51.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.343852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Billy Harris41c50.24$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.641,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Billy Harris40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Billy Harris39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Darwin Blanch57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.524563.3%155 W · 90 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Darwin Blanch67c49.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.938147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Billy Harris25c43.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.815113.7%7 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28a3…c711backed Billy Harris28c41.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.073122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x287c…81b2backed Billy Harris40c41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.514235.7%15 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda4f…77e9backed Darwin Blanch60c40.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.573231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Darwin Blanch48c35.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.97,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Darwin Blanch47c34.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.44,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.