WNBA · resolved market
Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02aaa342d2b57e3896aa92d022509d0bc1cd40da21c23d179bb20a6235da8bc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Connecticut Sun | 17c | 16,242$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.59 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Connecticut Sun | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…62edbacked Connecticut Sun | 8c | 4,521$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Connecticut Sun | 10c | 2,247$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.65 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Connecticut Sun | 2c | 1,634$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…bb68backed Connecticut Sun | 3c | 1,613$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Atlanta Dream | 80c | 1,178$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.66 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Connecticut Sun | 5c | 1,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 92 | 14.1%13 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Connecticut Sun | 19c | 979.98$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Connecticut Sun | 18c | 843$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Connecticut Sun | 8c | 664.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Connecticut Sun | 18c | 643.15$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…8d12backed Atlanta Dream | 79c | 632.88$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Connecticut Sun | 19c | 629.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Connecticut Sun | 18c | 479.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Atlanta Dream | 80c | 463.32$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…e0b1backed Connecticut Sun | 19c | 368.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Connecticut Sun | 11c | 343$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Connecticut Sun | 19c | 321.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd09…42d9backed Connecticut Sun | 18c | 299.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Connecticut Sun | 20c | 275.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Connecticut Sun | 22c | 227$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…a65cbacked Connecticut Sun | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 39cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Connecticut Sun | 7c | 177.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Connecticut Sun | 19c | 174.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d64…ba4abacked Connecticut Sun | 18c | 133.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Connecticut Sun | 8c | 128.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked Connecticut Sun | 20c | 127.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Connecticut Sun | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…857abacked Connecticut Sun | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Atlanta Dream | 79c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Connecticut Sun | 19c | 93.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Connecticut Sun | 19c | 91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Connecticut Sun | 18c | 86.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Atlanta Dream | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…2dfdbacked Connecticut Sun | 20c | 75.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Connecticut Sun | 18c | 63.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Atlanta Dream | 80c | 57.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0993…5047backed Connecticut Sun | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Atlanta Dream | 80c | 48.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Atlanta Dream | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed Atlanta Dream | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Atlanta Dream | 80c | 21.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sunthis page
- Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 172.5Over won
- Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 173.5Under won
- Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 174.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5)Atlanta Dream won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-9.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.