Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04db1fe61e5b278b478bbda88a21b914d7c2bdc7d2e694745c83c5476a7a4133
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 40c | 903.95$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 57c | 752.92$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.76 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 64c | 620.85$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.85 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 58c | 613.84$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.81 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 41c | 484.34$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.28 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 42c | 476.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 13c | 357.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 298.26$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 209.17$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 37c | 186.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…02d1backed Yes | 60c | 181.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 59c | 180.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 17c | 172.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 59c | 171.24$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 167.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 165.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 43c | 164$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 55c | 146.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 59c | 141.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 125.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 115$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 65c | 113.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 108.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 55c | 101$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 55c | 101$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 95.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 74c | 94.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 60c | 92.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 91.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 62c | 88.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 37c | 87.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 37c | 87.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 86.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 57c | 86.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 60c | 83.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 76.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 26c | 72.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed No | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 66c | 67.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 75c | 55.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 52.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 42c | 48.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 65c | 46.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 74c | 44.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 64c | 44.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 43.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 56c | 42.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 60c | 41.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 31c | 39.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 64c | 38.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 65c | 37.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…5712backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…5900backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 35c | 31.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 67c | 31.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 67c | 31.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 31.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…3cd1backed Yes | 65c | 30.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 29.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 57c | 29.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 45c | 28.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 52c | 28.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccf…f061backed Yes | 79c | 27.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…0789backed No | 46c | 27.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 65c | 26.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 56c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 25.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 42c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 43c | 24.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 62c | 24.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 21.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 54c | 21.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…fbe4backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.