Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f80d737cf645a2c94e266ceb7f6a87fca4cb53beedcaad8ccb65f75de9c4d22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 655.44$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 31c | 635.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 29c | 508.4$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.78 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 343.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 286.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 283$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 25c | 241.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked No | 68c | 219.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 170.97$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 148.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 74c | 146.63$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 136.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 134$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 70c | 127.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 77c | 124.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 122$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 120.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 86.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 84.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 31c | 78.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 76.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 33c | 61.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 55.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 30c | 52.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 50.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 36c | 49.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 29c | 48.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 46.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 36c | 41.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked Yes | 30c | 39.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed No | 78c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 31c | 38.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 35.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 34c | 34.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 32.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 29.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 64c | 29.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 28.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 26.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…5197backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 20.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7787…d002backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 78c | 16.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked No | 71c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 14.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.