NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0618e0329480a641ca14a572e7d69f338327809fb86fcd8d0b252b3959ad573a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 66c | 3,420$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.25 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 36c | 2,741$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.21 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 1,135$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,008$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.84 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 999.74$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.04 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 58c | 689.66$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -13.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 42c | 544.59$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.24 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 35c | 336.01$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.78 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 58c | 325.19$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.54 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 41c | 234.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.56 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 59c | 229.07$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 41c | 221.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 52c | 204.14$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 62c | 180.96$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Under | 40c | 150.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 146.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 127.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 44c | 116.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 44c | 106.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Over | 56c | 84.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 42c | 81.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 50c | 79.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…31f9backed Under | 50c | 74.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 49c | 60.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Under | 60c | 58.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 43.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…fc1abacked Over | 33c | 40.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 39c | 37.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 39c | 37.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Under | 67c | 34.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 272 | 45.6%124 W · 148 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 53c | 28.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 38c | 26.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 58c | 24.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 49c | 23.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 51c | 22.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 250.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.