NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5bc537b1d4d9a93dbbc0b14865309e9394541ee7755f8aeec4e12cf37f7317e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb602…1991backed Under | 67c | 719.39$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.26 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 74c | 706.88$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.22 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 605.57$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.61 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 32c | 479.63$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.05 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 422.63$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 46c | 421.74$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.2 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…4123backed Under | 55c | 316.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.89 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 48c | 244.2$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.17 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 46c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 111.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Under | 61c | 108.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Under | 57c | 87.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Under | 62c | 78.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 26c | 72.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 41c | 70.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +6.7wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +64%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 44c | 69.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 26c | 67.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Over | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 26c | 56.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 26c | 55.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Under | 62c | 44.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +187%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 38c | 36.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 48c | 31.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 50c | 31.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 50c | 31.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 50c | 31.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 29.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 46c | 23.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 46c | 21.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 250.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.