NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x105d1c989eaf4c0a78a3d818865e65f3be96992b3c69d5ae44e74114fc0663a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Cavaliers | 49c | 9,062$4,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,621.67 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards | 51c | 4,303$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.41 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Wizards | 51c | 3,733$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.93 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Wizards | 50c | 3,675$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.26 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards | 20c | 3,160$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.38 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wizards | 11c | 2,037$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.14 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wizards | 50c | 2,017$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.67 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…5c17backed Wizards | 1c | 1,411$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 52c | 1,051$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Cavaliers | 50c | 970$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Wizards | 53c | 733.43$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.72 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Wizards | 54c | 663.23$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.14 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Wizards | 53c | 450.22$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.62 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cavaliers | 48c | 403.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.91 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Wizards | 52c | 381.39$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Wizards | 5c | 360.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 274 | 63.5%174 W · 100 L | +34.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cavaliers | 48c | 302.95$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.63 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Wizards | 53c | 291.54$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Wizards | 49c | 227.74$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.91 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Wizards | 53c | 225.11$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Wizards | 53c | 225.11$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Wizards | 53c | 225.11$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Wizards | 54c | 221.38$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Wizards | 54c | 221.08$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Wizards | 54c | 221.08$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Wizards | 54c | 221.08$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.38 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Wizards | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 298 | 48%143 W · 155 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…ac72backed Cavaliers | 49c | 147.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers | 29c | 139.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Wizards | 43c | 128.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Wizards | 70c | 108.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…7f9bbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 101.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Wizards | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…12eebacked Cavaliers | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cavaliers | 41c | 96.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Cavaliers | 47c | 90.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Wizards | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Wizards | 48c | 68.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2913…d241backed Cavaliers | 50c | 67.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Wizards | 53c | 63.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 61.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Cavaliers | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…21cdbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 58.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Cavaliers | 50c | 54.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 68 | 76.5%52 W · 16 L | +12.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…9337backed Cavaliers | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…6d55backed Cavaliers | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 236 | 50.8%120 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Wizards | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Wizards | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Wizards | 53c | 30.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed Cavaliers | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Wizards | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…e414backed Cavaliers | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…d0ffbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 24.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 417 | 53.2%222 W · 195 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…ad64backed Cavaliers | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0046…7ec6backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…6d3fbacked Wizards | 52c | 20.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Wizards | 73c | 14.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 250.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.