NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8436355b1a3c95ab2b099596b469a7b7524738038b3f113e5d570275da0f2153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Cavaliers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Wizards | 51c | 4,823$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.32 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers | 13c | 2,735$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.78 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Cavaliers | 72c | 1,994$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.72 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wizards | 40c | 1,669$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.7 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Wizards | 32c | 1,522$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.09 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wizards | 69c | 982.09$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.03 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 35c | 907.65$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Wizards | 71c | 775.24$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.6 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Cavaliers | 24c | 286.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Cavaliers | 12c | 223$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Cavaliers | 48c | 220.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Cavaliers | 10c | 206.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Cavaliers | 10c | 179.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Cavaliers | 49c | 178.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Wizards | 62c | 170$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cavaliers | 31c | 168.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Cavaliers | 30c | 168.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Cavaliers | 48c | 158.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Cavaliers | 53c | 156.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Cavaliers | 17c | 151.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Cavaliers | 22c | 133.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 122.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 443 | 47.2%209 W · 234 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Wizards | 32c | 119.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Cavaliers | 26c | 116.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Cavaliers | 20c | 98.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Wizards | 68c | 98.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Wizards | 52c | 88.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cavaliers | 33c | 85.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 360 | 51.7%186 W · 174 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cavaliers | 29c | 81.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Cavaliers | 30c | 79.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Wizards | 74c | 79.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cavaliers | 51c | 75.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Wizards | 30c | 71.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Cavaliers | 70c | 70.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Wizards | 55c | 66.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Wizards | 80c | 65.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Wizards | 70c | 63.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cavaliers | 22c | 55.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Wizards | 30c | 53.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Wizards | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 266 | 39.8%106 W · 160 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cavaliers | 33c | 46.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cavaliers | 52c | 46.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Wizards | 41c | 42.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Wizards | 62c | 34.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f3…bc63backed Cavaliers | 40c | 29.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Cavaliers | 55c | 29.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Wizards | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Wizards | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8038…8b15backed Wizards | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Wizards | 42c | 26.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Wizards | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Wizards | 52c | 24.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Wizards | 70c | 23.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Wizards | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Wizards | 70c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Wizards | 62c | 16.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Wizards | 72c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 114 | 55.3%63 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 250.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.