TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Cavaliers, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,152

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,835 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd69d…fe68backed Cavaliers0c17,654$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.657316.4%12 W · 61 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+1,317.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cavaliers51c11,117$5,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,639.521,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Wizards49c10,438$5,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,323.515253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards54c1,781$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.929,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Wizards20c1,343$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.3152230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers55c1,081$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.613,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe081…fc19backed Cavaliers44c678.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bd7…55f5backed Cavaliers45c478.6$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked Cavaliers44c371.4$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.293250%16 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Cavaliers50c363.51$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.381,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards60c338.42$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.374,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cavaliers40c336.92$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.882,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a9…4d64backed Cavaliers47c335$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.451421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Wizards53c325.55$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.0124949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Cavaliers14c258.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5114438.9%56 W · 88 L+32.5wins+0.23per pick16cpaid+228.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Wizards55c198.53$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.341,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Wizards49c197.84$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.931151.1%159 W · 152 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Wizards29c123.06$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0355751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Cavaliers14c122$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0878639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Cavaliers51c111.6$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9237848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Wizards45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.111,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Cavaliers50c98.92$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3189850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Wizards58c97.48$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9417042.4%72 W · 98 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Wizards61c96.76$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1820146.8%94 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards56c76.29$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.573,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Cavaliers54c71.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6563746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbe…e45bbacked Cavaliers45c64.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.015843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Wizards57c64.03$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5338947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x439d…3e06backed Cavaliers38c58.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.261154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Cavaliers39c53.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.021,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers41c52.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.691,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Cavaliers54c47.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7790650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a3…8cb3backed Cavaliers40c45.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.084254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f1d…7ff3backed Cavaliers54c44.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2310753.3%57 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Wizards46c35.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3340146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Wizards59c35.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4744252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Wizards50c33.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9843052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Wizards57c28.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1718444.6%82 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Wizards57c28.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1733159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Wizards57c28.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1716653.6%89 W · 77 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.881,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8861151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8853348.4%258 W · 275 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8871654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8837647.3%178 W · 198 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.881,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8841753.2%222 W · 195 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8857051.9%296 W · 274 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8858953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8837853.4%202 W · 176 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8811653.4%62 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8819254.7%105 W · 87 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Cavaliers54c23.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8822047.3%104 W · 116 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c86…456bbacked Wizards57c20.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7818548.1%89 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.