NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x716b6e2397ae2213e82a2b29dc2dd43d0999a78f452a69e493f40c2d52ad154d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Cavaliers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Cavaliers | 0c | 17,654$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 73 | 16.4%12 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +1,317.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cavaliers | 51c | 11,117$5,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,639.52 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…8d26backed Wizards | 49c | 10,438$5,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,323.51 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 54c | 1,781$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.92 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Wizards | 20c | 1,343$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.31 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cavaliers | 55c | 1,081$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.61 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…fc19backed Cavaliers | 44c | 678.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd7…55f5backed Cavaliers | 45c | 478.6$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 371.4$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.29 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 363.51$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards | 60c | 338.42$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cavaliers | 40c | 336.92$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a9…4d64backed Cavaliers | 47c | 335$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Wizards | 53c | 325.55$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.01 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Cavaliers | 14c | 258.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Wizards | 55c | 198.53$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Wizards | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Wizards | 29c | 123.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Cavaliers | 14c | 122$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Cavaliers | 51c | 111.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Wizards | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Cavaliers | 50c | 98.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Wizards | 58c | 97.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Wizards | 61c | 96.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 201 | 46.8%94 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Wizards | 56c | 76.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Cavaliers | 54c | 71.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Wizards | 57c | 64.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x439d…3e06backed Cavaliers | 38c | 58.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Cavaliers | 39c | 53.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers | 41c | 52.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Cavaliers | 54c | 47.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Cavaliers | 40c | 45.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1d…7ff3backed Cavaliers | 54c | 44.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Wizards | 46c | 35.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…ca9bbacked Wizards | 59c | 35.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 442 | 52.3%231 W · 211 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Wizards | 50c | 33.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Wizards | 57c | 28.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Wizards | 57c | 28.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Wizards | 57c | 28.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 417 | 53.2%222 W · 195 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Cavaliers | 54c | 23.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Wizards | 57c | 20.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 250.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.