TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,976 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafaf…1635backed Under52c2,220$1,144 inLost-$1,144.111,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e59…307dbacked Over49c2,000$980 inWon+$1,019.998859.1%52 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c1,271$630 inLost-$629.649,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over50c1,100$550 inWon+$55045146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under49c1,081$534 inLost-$534.311,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Under50c1,077$538 inLost-$538.3558951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Over51c970.6$495 inWon+$475.5924332.9%80 W · 163 L-22.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Over53c568.41$301 inWon+$267.1595452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under49c496.13$244 inLost-$243.564,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x004e…c650backed Over50c436.19$218 inWon+$218.0918650%93 W · 93 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over50c374.17$188 inWon+$186.181,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf58c…0b79backed Over56c347.71$195 inWon+$152.997150.7%36 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under50c318.31$159 inLost-$159.151,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over50c254.53$128 inWon+$126.2989850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under51c126.55$65 inLost-$64.5423549.4%116 W · 119 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under53c101.9$54 inLost-$54.0549247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Under54c100.16$54 inLost-$54.0840750.6%206 W · 201 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed0…b5b8backed Under52c100.03$52 inLost-$52.022240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x532f…e13fbacked Under50c97$49 inLost-$48.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed Over50c97$49 inWon+$48.55743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under50c59.62$30 inLost-$30.031,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Under48c58.76$28 inLost-$28.23647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over48c50$24 inWon+$262,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Over47c48.41$23 inWon+$25.6614237.3%53 W · 89 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x510e…b8e0backed Under51c47.58$24 inLost-$24.272123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Under51c47.54$24 inLost-$24.2753348.4%258 W · 275 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Under52c46.69$24 inLost-$24.2837853.4%202 W · 176 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Under50c42.15$21 inLost-$21.0731953%169 W · 150 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0095…42c1backed Over52c37.35$19 inWon+$17.9321952.5%115 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Under42c34.93$15 inLost-$14.5933159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d6…aedbbacked Under51c29.36$15 inLost-$14.9710657.5%61 W · 45 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Under51c27.54$14 inLost-$13.9720247.5%96 W · 106 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Under51c27.41$14 inLost-$13.9855751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Under51c27.41$14 inLost-$13.9818444.6%82 W · 102 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Under51c27.41$14 inLost-$13.9816653.6%89 W · 77 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over58c20.88$12 inWon+$8.8714860.1%89 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under51c20.38$10 inLost-$10.445251.1%231 W · 221 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce82…8c84backed Over50c20.2$10 inWon+$10.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.